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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1929.68EOD only
Max Pain
$1700.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$61.10
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-229.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.36
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ASML earnings Jul 15. IV ramps into event; put floor supports. 80% beat rate.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.6% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Earnings IV of ~42% for Jul 10 expiry prices ±10.3% move. Watch EUV demand guidance.
⚠️Earnings IV already 42% in Jul 10 expiry; expected move ±10.3% is elevated.
📈80% beat rate supports long bias; but post-earnings crush significant.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,624 (27.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (27 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$61.10 (3.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$81.00 (4.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$199.70 (10.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end ~21% IV, 22d (pre-earnings) 42% IV; steepening into earnings.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV likely drops ~15-20 pts to ~25%.

Skew: Put skew elevated: deep OTM 1200P at 143% IV. Front skew flattish.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; 80% beat rate suggests upward drift.

Directional bias: Historically bullish on beats; tailwinds from semis and AI.

Key Levels

1$1400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $1868.58/$1990.78
3Max pain pins: $1600 (2026-06-18); $1700 (2026-06-26); $1700 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put activity: $1900 put vol/oi 5.1x at $0.05.

Cheap downside hedge; not aggressive directional bet.

Calls clustered near $1930-1950 with elevated volume.

Moderate bullish positioning near spot.

Strategies

Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $1800.00 put + sell $2140.00 call
Credit: $111.15-$135.85
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $135.85
BE: 1664.15 / 2275.85
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings; roll if tested.
Elevated pre-earnings IV (42%) drops ~15-20 pts; 80% beat rate keeps stock within 10%; liquidity pass.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to collect premium and benefit from IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $1820.00/$1750.00 put wing and $2100.00/$2180.00 call wing
Credit: $31.01-$37.90
Max loss: $42.10
Max gain: $37.90
BE: 1782.10 / 2137.90
Trigger: Exit at 50% max gain; adjust wings if support/resistance breached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Rich credit from high IV; defined risk; 80% beat rate limits move within wings.
Outperforms: Sells put and call wings to profit from IV contraction and limited move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings miss could gap down >10% (IV priced).
!EUV export restrictions or macro shock.
!Gamma pin may break on news; watch $1700 support.

What to Watch

?$1900 put activity for hedging unwind.
?IV ramp into Jul 15; monitor term structure steepening.
?Sector flows for correlation cues.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.