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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1863.55EOD only
Max Pain
$1500.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$103.60
5.6% from close
Price Gap
-363.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.41
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings 33d out; 80% beat rate; high IV; mixed flow with put dominance.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.7% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Near-term pinning at $1730, put OI wall 1700-1900, gamma flip at $1650.
📉Put/call OI ratio 1.41; put dominance
📊Max pain $1730; spot above, pinning likely
🛡️Gamma flip $1650; downside risk if broken

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1650.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,098 (11.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (33 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$103.60 (5.6%)
  • 2026-06-26 (14d): ±$87.05 (4.7%)
  • 2026-07-02 (20d): ±$103.00 (5.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango; 1w IV 30-35%, 2w 54%, 3w 82%.

Crush estimate: ~50% crush post-earnings.

Skew: Puts elevated; skew protective.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A

Directional bias: Neutral (mixed flow)

Key Levels

1$1650.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $1759.95/$1967.15
3Max pain pins: $1730 (2026-06-12); $1500 (2026-06-18); $1600 (2026-06-26)

Flow Highlights

Put buying at 1880/1810/1800 strikes

Downside hedging ahead of earnings

Call OI wall at $2200, light near-term call buying

Resistance not tested; neutral-bearish bias

Strategies

Earnings Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $1800.00 put + sell $1960.00 call
Credit: $189.14-$231.17
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $231.17
BE: 1568.83 / 2191.17
Trigger: Close before earnings or at 50% max profit.
High IV contango; neutral flow; 50% crush.
Outperforms: Sell strangle to capture IV premium and post-earnings crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Put Calendar Spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $1800.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $1800.00 put
Debit: $19.35-$23.65
Max loss: $23.65
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if underlying breaks support. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Contango; put dominance; low liquidity risk.
Outperforms: Calendar spread to exploit term structure and downside bias.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Downside to gamma flip at $1650 if support fails
!Upside capped by call wall $2200 before earnings
!IV contraction likely post-earnings

What to Watch

?2026-07-15 earnings report
?Weekly max pain pinning at $1730
?Put OI concentration 1700-1900
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.