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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1892.66EOD only
Max Pain
$1520.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$89.60
4.7% from close
Price Gap
-372.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
98
High premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Downside lean
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ASML earnings Jul 15, 29d out. High IV regime with gamma pinning near MP $1550. Call wall $1900-$2300. Beat rate 80% but flow mixed.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 16.4% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Elevated IV and gamma pinning: large move expected but crush likely; watch gamma flip ~$1400.
📊IV term structure steep: short-term options pricing large immediate move.
🔄Net premium positive despite more puts: OTM call premium outweighs.
📈80% historical beat rate supports bullish lean, but watch for sell-the-news.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,627 (22.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (29 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (2d): ±$66.80 (3.7%)
  • 2026-06-26 (10d): ±$132.95 (7.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (16d): ±$161.70 (9.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 2d ±3.7%, 10d ±7.4%, 16d ±9.0%.

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings crush expected, likely 30-50% IV contraction.

Skew: Put-call OI ratio 1.32 indicates slight put bias; call wall at $1900-$2300 resists upside.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not computed, but implied moves (3.7-9%) are typical for ASML earnings.

Directional bias: Historical beat rate 80% suggests upside bias, but moves can be volatile in both directions.

Key Levels

1$1400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $1737.09/$1870.69; 1w $1670.94/$1936.84
3Max pain pins: $1550 (2026-06-18); $1660 (2026-06-26); $1680 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual OTM call buying: ASML 2026-06-18 $2270C (IV 78.9%, vol/OI 2.9) and $1950C (IV 56.4%, vol/OI 2.7).

Speculative upside bets on earnings; low OI indicates new positions but high IV suggests tail risk pricing.

Strategies

Short Strangle on ASML
Sell 2026-07-10 $1635.00 put + sell $2060.00 call
Credit: $49.41-$60.39
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $60.39
BE: 1574.61 / 2120.39
Trigger: Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Volume below 5.
Best captures IV crush and gamma pinning with high premium.
Outperforms: Sells put and call to collect premium, benefits from post-earnings IV collapse and pinning near $1550.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $1960.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $1920.00 call
Debit: $29.61-$36.19
Max loss: $36.19
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Exploits term structure skew; near-term IV decays faster than back-month.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later-dated call to profit from time decay differential.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Strangle
Sell 2026-07-10 $1960.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $1920.00 call
Debit: $29.61-$36.19
Max loss: $36.19
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Lower cost than straddle but faces large crush risk; ranks last due to adverse IV environment.
Outperforms: Buys put and call to bet on big move, but crush offsets gains.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $1760.00 put + buy $1880.00 call
Debit: $168.25-$205.65
Max loss: $205.65
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 1554.35 / 2085.65
High IV but crush expected; strangle cheaper than straddle; gamma tail if move exceeds wings.
Outperforms: Cheaper long-vol structure to benefit from asymmetric move; wide strikes reduce premium.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!High premium decay risk due to elevated IV and time to earnings.
!Gamma flip if spot breaks below ~$1400 (strong put OI concentration).
!Call wall at $1900-$2300 may cap upside if tested before earnings.

What to Watch

?Earnings preview and any pre-announcements.
?Max pain levels: $1550 (6/18), $1660 (6/26), $1680 (7/02).
?Gamma flip zone ~$1400; breach could accelerate moves.
?Unusual activity near $1950 and $2270 calls.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.