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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1778.46EOD only
Max Pain
$1785.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$90.65
5.1% from close
Price Gap
+6.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ASML earnings 21d; IV steep; 80% beat rate but put flow defensive.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 1.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Potential downside hedging via unusual puts; $1700 gamma flip.
🛡️ASML Aug21 $1660 Put 2.4x OI - downside hedge
🔺Call wall $1900-$2100 resistance
📉Put/Call vol 1.39 - defensive

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,903 (3.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$79.60 (4.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$128.45 (7.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$170.90 (9.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: 2d ±4.5%, 8d ±7.3%, 16d ±9.7% - steep term structure.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush ~30-50%.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to $1700 gamma flip and unusual put OI.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beats often smaller; misses larger than implied.

Directional bias: Slight bullish from 80% beat rate but put flow contradicts.

Key Levels

1$1700.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $1683.17/$1842.37; 1w $1634.32/$1891.22
3Max pain pins: $1780 (2026-06-26); $1750 (2026-07-02); $1750 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

ASML Aug21 $1660 Put vol/oi 2.4x

Bearish hedge or downside speculation.

ASML Jun26 $1900 Call vol/oi 2.3x

Bullish but small premium speculative.

Strategies

Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $1900.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $1800.00 call
Debit: $78.08-$95.43
Max loss: $95.43
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Steep IV term structure favours selling near-term calls; 80% beat rate supports bullish bias.
Outperforms: Sell front-week call, buy later expiry to capture IV crush and directional upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $1750.00/$1740.00 put wing and $1800.00/$1810.00 call wing
Credit: $9.00-$11.00
Max loss: $0.00
Max gain: $11.00
BE: 1739.00 / 1811.00
Trigger: Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
High IV premium; support at $1700 put wall, resistance at $1900-$2100 calls; range-bound likely.
Outperforms: Sell out-of-the-money put spread and call spread to profit from low volatility.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Large put OI at $1700 (3.6% below spot) gamma flip risk.
!Call OI wall $1900-$2100 caps upside.
!Unusual puts $1660 - downside protection.

What to Watch

?Spot near $1700 put concentration.
?Unusual put activity continuation.
?Net premium flow pre-earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.