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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1929.25EOD only
Max Pain
$1750.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$104.45
5.4% from close
Price Gap
-179.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
1.26
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ASML earnings in 22d; IV elevated with inverted term structure; put-heavy flow but unusual call activity; historical beat rate 80%.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: High IV and put flow suggest caution, but bullish call activity hints at potential upside surprise.
📉Put/Call OI ratio 1.31 signals bearish tilt.
📈Unusual $1850 call volume hints at upside bets.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,895 (4.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (22 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$90.65 (5.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$135.70 (7.6%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$177.35 (10.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Inverted: front-end IV ~62% vs longer-dated ~46% annualized.

Crush estimate: Expected 30-40% IV crush post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated (PCR 1.4 vol), with notable call activity at $1850.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available.

Directional bias: Bullish (80% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$1700.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $1687.81/$1869.11; 1w $1642.76/$1914.16
3Max pain pins: $1785 (2026-06-26); $1740 (2026-07-02); $1745 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call at $1850 Jun26, vol 252 vs OI 148, IV 62.1%.

Aggressive upside positioning ahead of earnings.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $1960.00/$2140.00 call spread
Debit: $29.11-$35.58
Max loss: $35.58
Max gain: $144.42
BE: $1995.58
Trigger: Exit on IV crush post-earnings or if ASML drops below $1700 invalidation.
Combines upside potential with defined risk and lower cost; aligns with 80% beat rate and bullish call activity.
Outperforms: Buy $1960 call, sell $2140 call for net debit; profits if ASML rallies above breakeven.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-17 $1960.00 call
Debit: $48.64-$59.45
Max loss: $59.45
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $2019.45
Trigger: Set stop loss at $1700; take profit if stock reaches $2140 or on IV crush.
Direct upside bet with unlimited profit potential; supported by high beat rate and call activity.
Outperforms: Buy $1960 call; profits if ASML rises above strike plus premium.
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $1740.00 put + sell $1820.00 call
Credit: $172.03-$210.26
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $210.26
BE: 1529.74 / 2030.26
Trigger: Close if stock approaches strikes or adjust wings; take profit on IV crush.
Captures high IV premium and benefits from anticipated IV crush; inverted term structure favors seller.
Outperforms: Sell $1740 put and $1820 call; collects premium, profits if stock stays between strikes.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $1800.00 put + buy $1800.00 call
Debit: $203.13-$248.27
Max loss: $248.27
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 1551.73 / 2048.27
High IV and 80% beat rate suggest large move; IV crush 30-40% post-event
Outperforms: Buy straddle for volatility
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Downside risk from put-heavy flow (PCR 1.4) and tech weakness.
!Upside risk if earnings beat triggers covering on call wall $1900+.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction at $1785 max pain and $1850 call strike.
?IV and volume trends leading into event.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.