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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1762.77EOD only
Max Pain
$1780.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$79.60
4.5% from close
Price Gap
+17.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.29
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings in 20 days; IV elevated with 2.6% expected move. Put skew dominant, heavy $1700 put activity. 80% beat rate supports upside bias.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Gamma pinning at $1775 and put wall at $1700 define range; watch break above $1888 or below $1728.
🚨Heavy put activity at $1700, 7.7% below spot, signals tail risk hedging.
📌Max pain $1775 for 6/26 expiry; spot within pinning range.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,417 (7.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (20 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$47.05 (2.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$113.25 (6.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$162.65 (8.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 1d 2.6%, 7d 6.2%, 15d 8.8% implied moves.

Crush estimate: Event crush could exceed 1d move; IV likely to drop 30-40% post-earnings.

Skew: Put skew elevated; P/C volume 1.65, OI 1.30. Heavy put buying at $1700.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate; avg move data N/A.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias from high beat rate.

Key Levels

1$1700.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $1794.13/$1888.23; 1w $1727.93/$1954.43
3Max pain pins: $1775 (2026-06-26); $1750 (2026-07-02); $1700 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Heavy put buying on $1700 strike for Aug and Jul expiries (vol/OI > 1.8).

Defensive hedging or spec positioning below current spot (~$1840).

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $1680.00/$1600.00 put wing and $2060.00/$2200.00 call wing
Credit: $34.65-$42.35
Max loss: $97.65
Max gain: $42.35
BE: 1637.65 / 2102.35
Trigger: Close at 50% profit or if wings breached.
Defined risk inside support/resistance, high liquidity.
Outperforms: Captures elevated IV within expected range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $1960.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $1860.00 call
Debit: $60.30-$73.70
Max loss: $73.70
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll near-term if spot nears short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Exploits steep term structure with bullish bias.
Outperforms: Sell near-term premium, buy long-term call.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $1640.00 put + sell $2120.00 call
Credit: $60.03-$73.37
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $73.37
BE: 1566.63 / 2193.37
Trigger: Set stop loss; adjust on IV expansion. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Higher premium but unlimited risk, lower liquidity.
Outperforms: Sells OTM puts and calls for premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush post-earnings could exceed expected move, punishing long premium.
!Gamma pinning at $1775 may cap upside near-term.
!Put wall at $1700 provides support but if broken could accelerate decline.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction at $1775 MP (6/26 expiry) and $1700 gamma flip.
?Earnings call for forward guidance on chip demand.
?Volume confirmation on break above $1888 or below $1728.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.