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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.36EOD only

Max Pain

$87.00

Next expiry Jun 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.39

0.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TLT is range-bound with dealer gamma pinning near $87. Low vol and mixed flow limit directional impetus. Slight bullish bias from equity rally tailwind for bonds.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive +1 spot at MP +1 low VIX = 9.0. Strong alignment supports high conviction in pinning regime.

Supports: Positive dealer gamma $1.9B, spot at max pain, low vol, VIX 18.
Conflicts: Mixed flow may cap extremes; equity rally could spark bear steepener.

📌Gamma pinning at $87 with $1.9B GEX. Spot within 0.5% of MP. Strong support.

📊Low vol regime (IV near bottom) favors range trade. Theta decay favorable.

⚠️Gamma flip at $80 (put OI). Unlikely near-term but risk if rates spike.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV is Low, near bottom of 6-month range. Vol of vol compressed, favoring premium selling.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma is Pinning: +$1.9B GEX creates strong magnetic effect near $87. Spot within 0.5% of max pain.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium balanced, P/C neutral. No dominant directional flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $87, exactly at max pain for front-week. High probability of pinning through expiry.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain expiry on 2026-06-28 with pinning gamma. Event-specific for expiration.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.98$87.92

Gamma support $87, resistance $87.92. Likely drift up within range.

Next 1 week

$86.61$88.28

Expiration pinning, range $86.61-$88.28. No catalyst.

Next 2 weeks

$86.06$88.83

Post-expiry, gamma flip at $80 may attract if rates drop. Support $86.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $87 (2026-06-29); $86 (2026-06-30); $87 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.98/$87.92; 1w $86.61/$88.28

Support: $87.00 · $86.06 · $86.00

Resistance: $88.00 · $88.83 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,566 (8.5% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $87 (expiry), EM guardrails 2d $86.98/$87.92, 1w $86.61/$88.28. Support $86, resistance $88. Gamma flip ~$80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.9B

DEX: +206.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,566 (8.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma +$1.9B, DEX +206.6M shares. Gamma flip at $80 (put OI). Strong pinning bias near $87.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV low ~13%, below VIX 17.6. Vol relatively cheap vs equity vol, inline with low vol regime.

Term structure: Term structure flat to slight contango, no event kinks. Front-week at max pain expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated vs calls, likely rate hedge. Opportunity: sell puts below $86 to collect premium with low gamma risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive ($9.2M) indicates net buying despite slightly put-heavy volume ratio.

Directional prints: 50 call 72 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 9.9; deep ITM call with high IV; likely bought (bullish stock replacement).

Unusual: 11.3 put 83 OTM 2026-08-07 — Vol/OI 11.9; OTM put with high volume; likely bought as bearish hedge. 50 call 72 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 9.9; deep ITM call; likely bullish position. 1.6 call 87.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 9.0; huge volume near zero premium; likely closing of shorts.

Risks & Catalysts

!Rates spike unexpectedly above 4.5%, breaking pinning and triggering gamma flip towards $80.

!Sharp reversal in vol (VIX spike) could break low vol regime.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $87.00/$86.00 put spread Why now: Low vol, dealer gamma pinning near $87 limits downside.	Unexpected rates spike above 4.5% could break support.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-17 $88.50 call Why now: Low IV, slight tailwind from equity rally.	Time decay and rates spike risk.
Short strangle	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $85.50 put + sell $89.50 call Why now: Dealer pinning near $87, IV low but premium decay beneficial.	Tail risk from sudden vol spike or breakout.

Top Plays

Bullish call on low IV

Buy 2026-07-17 $88.50 call

Buy 2026-07-17 $88.50 call at ~0.21-0.26. Low IV and net premium flow support upside.

Why this play: Best expresses bullish bias from equity tailwind and low IV; unlimited upside.

Debit: $0.21-$0.26

Max loss: $0.26

BE: $88.76

Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $87 (invalidation) or take profit on vol spike.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside.

Put credit spread on pinning

Sell 2026-07-17 $87.00/$86.00 put spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $87/$86 put spread for ~0.29-0.35 credit. Max gain 0.35, risk defined.

Why this play: Dealer gamma pinning near $87 limits downside; low vol favors premium decay.

Credit: $0.29-$0.35

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $86.65

Mgmt: Close if TLT drops below $87 or IV spikes.

Income-oriented traders wanting defined risk.

Short strangle on range

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.50 put + sell $89.50 call

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.50 put + $89.50 call for ~0.23-0.29 credit.

Why this play: Range-bound outlook and low vol favor premium decay but unlimited tail risk.

Credit: $0.23-$0.29

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 85.21 / 89.79

Mgmt: Adjust or hedge if TLT approaches strikes; monitor vol.

Experienced range traders with high conviction on pinning.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF TLT holds above $87.00 with dealer gamma pinning near $87 → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $87/$86 put spread for 0.29-0.35 credit

IFIF TLT breaks above $88.00 with bullish momentum → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $88.50 call for 0.21-0.26

IFIF TLT stays between $86.00 and $88.00 with low volatility → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $85.50 put + $89.50 call for 0.23-0.29 credit

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF TLT drops below $87.00 (invalidation for put spread and call) → THEN close put credit spread and long call to limit losses

ADJIF TLT approaches $86.00 support → THEN roll short strangle put side up or add hedges

Exit Triggers

EXITIF TLT breaks below $86.00 support → THEN close all positions (call, put spread, strangle)

Tactical Summary

Range-bound with pinning near $87. Favor put credit spread for income; long call on upside breakout; short strangle for range. Key levels: $86 support, $88 resistance. Exit if $86 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.