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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.75EOD only

Max Pain

$85.50

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.49

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-1.25

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TLT in low-vol pinning regime with bullish flow and spot at $86 max pain. High confidence in narrow range holding near $86, bias slightly bullish due to dealer gamma support and positive flow. Risks from bond volatility and gamma flip at $80 but unlikely near-term.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +1 VIX 17.

Supports: GEX +1.2B bull support, spot at $86 max pain, bullish flow, low VIX 17, tight EM range.
Conflicts: Downside risk from bond selloff, gamma flip at $80 far below but potential if break, limited upside due to pinning.

🛡️Dealer gamma $1.2B positive pins TLT near $86.

📊Spot at max pain $86 with zero gamma drive.

⚠️Low vol regime but risk of vol expansion on macro surprise.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV low vs historical, near VIX 17, suggesting complacency.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +1.2B strongly positive, spot at max pain, pinning expected near $86.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with net call buying, supporting upside bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $86 max pain, within EM 85.61-86.57, pinning likely.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins for Jun 22,24,26 OPEX cycles, with low vol and gamma support suggesting short-term range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$85.61$86.57

Pinning at $86 with range 85.61-86.57; break above 86.57 signals strength.

Next 1 week

$85.29$86.89

Max pain $86 and $85 support; upside to 86.89 if momentum continues.

Next 2 weeks

$84.71$87.46

Structural range 84.71-87.46 with bullish flow; risk of gamma flip at $80 low.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-22); $86 (2026-06-24); $85 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $85.61/$86.57; 1w $85.29/$86.89

Support: $86.00 · $85.00 · $84.71

Resistance: $87.00 · $87.46 · $88.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 115,540 (7.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $86 (Jun22), $86 (Jun24), $85 (Jun26). EM guardrails: 2d $85.61/$86.57; 1w $85.29/$86.89. Support $86,$85,$84.71. Resistance $87,$87.46,$88. Gamma flip $80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.2B

DEX: +191.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 115,540 (7.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma ($+1.2B GEX) with flip at $80 (7.1% below spot). Provides stability and pinning near $86.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV low vs VIX 17, cheap on relative basis; encourages premium selling.

Term structure: Term structure flat with slight contango; event kinks near Jun26 OPEX.

Skew: Skew neutral; put/call skew balanced due to bullish flow. Opportunity in selling strangles near MP.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net +$15.9M premium, put/call vol ratio 0.70 (call-heavy).

Directional prints: 26.9 call 83 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.5x; likely bought; near-term bullish. 85.2 call 73 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 6.8x, high IV; likely bought; deep ITM directional. 11.8 call 89 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 3.9x, large vol; likely bought; OTM speculation.

Unusual: 10.6 call 89.5 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 6.7x, deep OTM $0.04; likely bought; high-risk call. 15 put 82 OTM 2026-07-01 — Vol/OI 4.4x, cheap $0.01; likely protective puts. 10.3 put 85.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 3.7x, $0.37; ITM put activity; uncertain direction.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bond selloff on hawkish Fed surprise.

!Gamma flip at $80 if spot breaks down.

!Low vol may snap higher on macro event.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $86.00/$88.00 call spread Why now: Positive flow and dealer gamma support near $86, call-heavy prints.	Capped upside if rally exceeds 88.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $85.00/$84.00 put spread Why now: Low vol and $86 support; theta decay benefits short put.	Selloff below 85 could cause losses.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-10 $86.00/$85.50 put spread Why now: Put credit spread profits from neutral-to-bullish price action and time decay; aligns with near-term pinning thesis.	Unexpected downside move below 84 due to bond selloff may exceed spread width.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $87.00/$87.50 call spread Why now: Bull call spread limits cost while leveraging upside; suited for moderate bullish view with defined risk.	If TLT stays below 86, premium is lost; upside capped at 88.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $86.00 cash-secured put Why now: Cash-secured put generates income and potential assignment at desired price; aligns with bullish flow and max pain.	If TLT drops below 84, assigned shares at higher price than market; margin required.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread @ $86/$85.5

Sell 2026-07-10 $86.00/$85.50 put spread

Sell $86 put, buy $85.5 put for net credit; max gain if TLT stays above $86.

Why this play: Best aligned with pinning thesis: tight risk, profits from theta decay and neutral-to-bullish bias.

Credit: $0.19-$0.24

Max loss: $0.26

BE: $85.76

Mgmt: Hold to expiration or close at 50% max profit; exit if TLT breaks below $85.50.

Neutral-to-bullish traders seeking high probability, defined risk.

Bull Call Spread @ $87/$87.5

Buy 2026-07-10 $87.00/$87.50 call spread

Buy $87 call, sell $87.5 call; max gain if TLT reaches $87.5.

Why this play: Cheap upside leveraged with defined risk; suits moderate bullish view and call-heavy flow.

Debit: $0.09-$0.11

Max loss: $0.11

BE: $87.11

Mgmt: Exit if TLT drops below $86 or at 50% gain; hold to expiration otherwise.

Bullish traders with low capital seeking upside with limited cost.

Bull Call Spread @ $86/$88

Sell 2026-07-10 $86.00 cash-secured put

Buy $86 call, sell $88 call; profits from move towards $88.

Why this play: Higher max gain for more aggressive bullish bet; supported by positive flow and gamma support.

Credit: $0.63-$0.76

Max loss: $85.24

BE: $85.24

Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or hold to expiration; invalidate if TLT breaks below $86.

Aggressive bullish traders comfortable with higher cost.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds above $86 at open or during session → then sell 2026-07-10 $86/$85.50 put credit spread (candidate 1) for net credit in range 0.19-0.24

IFIf spot breaks above $87 with volume >1.5x 20-day avg and holds → then buy 2026-07-10 $87/$87.50 bull call spread (candidate 2) for net debit 0.09-0.11

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $86 → then exit all bull call spreads and cash-secured put positions immediately

EXITIf spot breaks below $85 → then exit put credit spread (candidate 1) to limit loss

Tactical Summary

TLT pinned near $86 max pain with bullish flow and dealer gamma support. Key support $86, resistance $87. High-probability plays: sell $86/$85.5 put spread for theta decay, or buy $87/$87.5 call spread for cheap upside. Exit if spot closes below $86.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.