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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.38EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.53

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-2.38

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with strong gamma pinning near $86 max pain. Low vol and positive dealer gamma support range-bound trade. Resistance at $88 caps upside.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX pinning +0.5 spot near MP +0.5 TLT IV at 30th pctl = 9

Supports: Positive dealer gamma, low vol, max pain pinning, spot near support.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance at $88.

🟢GEX +$2.1B strong pinning at $86

📊Low vol regime supports range trade

⚠️Resistance at $88 may cap upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low IV vs typical range, low realized vol.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$2.1B, strong pinning near $86.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flows, slight put dominance but net neutral.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~$87 above $86 max pain, bullish but pinned.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiration week pinning dynamics dominate.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.99$87.70

Pinning near $86, target upper end

Next 1 week

$86.63$88.06

Breakout above $88 needed for extension

Next 2 weeks

$86.12$88.58

Broader range, wait for catalyst

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-26); $86 (2026-06-29); $86 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.99/$87.70; 1w $86.63/$88.06

Support: $86.12 · $86.00 · $85.00

Resistance: $88.00 · $88.58 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,059 (8.4% below spot)

Structural: Support $86.12/86/85; Resistance $88/88.58/90; Gamma flip ~$80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.1B

DEX: +215.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,059 (8.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$2.1B (long gamma), DEX +215.4M shares. Gamma flip at ~$80.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV low vs VIX, cheap options.

Term structure: Normal contango, near-term slight elevation due to event.

Skew: Skew flat, no clear opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive $30.6M net premium; put/call vol ratio 1.01 suggests mixed but premium leaning bullish.

Directional prints: 10.9 put 86 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol/OI 22.6, IV 10.9. New put position; bearish read. 65.6 call 72 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 9.9, IV 65.6. Deep ITM call bought; bullish read. 12.7 call 90.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 7.2, IV 12.7. OTM call speculative; bullish read.

Unusual: 10.9 put 86 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol/OI 22.6, IV 10.9. Unusual put volume; bearish hedge or bet. 10.8 put 84 OTM 2027-05-21 — Vol/OI 8.6, IV 10.8. Long-dated put, unusual activity. 65.6 call 72 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 9.9, IV 65.6. Deep ITM call, high IV, unusual.

Risks & Catalysts

!Macro rate spike

!Volatility expansion

!Break of $88 resistance

!Gamma flip at $80

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00/$85.00 put wing and $89.00/$90.00 call wing Why now: Max pain 86 and resistance 88 create high-probability range; low IV cheapens wings.	Breakout above 89 or below 84 causes max loss.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $88.00/$89.00 call spread Why now: Cheap call premium due to low vol; max pain supports.	Loss if TLT fails to rally; max loss is debit paid.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00/$85.00 put spread Why now: Low vol and positive dealer gamma favor premium sale with defined risk.	Loss if TLT drops below 85; limited to spread width.

Top Plays

Range-Bound Iron Condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00/$85.00 put wing and $89.00/$90.00 call wing

Sell 86/85 put spread and 89/90 call spread to profit from low vol range.

Why this play: Best aligns with max pain pinning and resistance cap, high probability.

Credit: $0.23-$0.29

Max loss: $0.71

BE: 85.71 / 89.29

Mgmt: Monitor for break of 86 or 88; exit if breached.

Traders expecting tight range near 86.

Bullish Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00/$85.00 put spread

Sell 86/85 put spread to collect premium, benefiting from dealer gamma support.

Why this play: Defined risk bullish play with low vol premium.

Credit: $0.14-$0.18

Max loss: $0.82

BE: $85.82

Mgmt: Roll if underlying approaches 86.12 invalidation.

Bullish traders seeking limited risk.

Capped Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $88.00/$89.00 call spread

Buy 88/89 call spread for cheap upside but capped.

Why this play: Least preferred due to resistance near 88 limiting upside.

Debit: $0.22-$0.26

Max loss: $0.26

BE: $88.26

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or stop loss under 86.

Aggressive bullish traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTLT stays between 86.12 and 88 → Enter iron condor: sell 86/85 put and 89/90 call spreads at mid-market 0.23-0.29

IFTLT holds above 86.12 → Enter put credit spread: sell 86/85 put spread for 0.14-0.18 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITTLT breaks above 88 or below 86 → Exit all positions

Tactical Summary

Neutral bias with gamma pinning at $86. Resistance at $88 caps upside. Iron condor preferred. Manage risk on break of 86 or 88.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.