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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.20EOD only

Max Pain

$86.00

Next expiry Jun 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.33

0.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.20

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish thesis for TLT driven by low vol, strong dealer gamma pinning near $86 max pain, and bullish flow. Spot above MP with support from $2.1B GEX. Gradual drift toward $88 resistance over multi-week horizon.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 pinning +0.5 spot above MP +0.5 VIX 19 → 9.0. High conviction from structural dealer support.

Supports: Low vol, pinning gamma, bullish flow, spot above MP, high dealer gamma, VIX declining
Conflicts: Elevated VIX (19) vs low IV, macro risk, resistance at $88 OI cluster

📌GEX pin near $86 max pain; strong dealer hedging supports

📈Bullish flow premium reinforces dealer long gamma position

🌊Low IV percentile offers favorable vol carry for long positions

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV in 21st percentile of 252d range, low and compressing after Fed hold

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$2.1B strongly positive; gamma flip at $80; price anchored near $86

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow, dealers hedging upward positioning

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $87.23 (1.6% above $85.88 MP), typical bullish alignment

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol, strong gamma, and bullish flow support sustained upward drift with minimal event risk

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.85$87.91

Max pin $86 provides support; range $86.85–$87.91

Next 1 week

$86.73$88.03

Resistance at $88; drift within $86.73–$88.03

Next 2 weeks

$86.05$88.70

Support $86.05; resistance $88.7; gradual rise

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-24); $85 (2026-06-26); $86 (2026-06-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.85/$87.91; 1w $86.73/$88.03

Support: $86.05 · $86.00 · $85.00

Resistance: $88.00 · $88.70 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,070 (8.4% below spot)

Structural: Support $86 (max pain), $85 (put concentration); resistance $88 (EM guardrail), $88.7 (2w high); gamma flip $80

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.1B

DEX: +216.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,070 (8.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma (+$2.1B), pinning near $86. Gamma flip at $80 provides downside buffer. DEX +216M shares indicates net long stock exposure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV ~18% is cheap vs VIX 19%, offering vol carry; low vol regime suggests limited fear premium

Term structure: Contango through monthly; back months slightly elevated on macro uncertainty

Skew: Put skew lower than calls; selling $85 puts for yield with gamma support

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium dominance, P/C vol ratio ~1.84, bearish bias.

Directional prints: 8.9 put 87 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 18k vs OI 1.5k, vol/OI 11.7; bearish if bought, bullish if sold; likely bought. 9.5 call 90 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol 14k vs OI 680, vol/OI 20.8; bullish if bought, bearish if sold; likely bought. 8.1 put 87.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 7.7k vs OI 361, vol/OI 21.2; bearish if bought, bullish if sold; likely bought.

Unusual: 8.1 put 87.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 21.2, highest; extreme relative volume. 9.5 call 90 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 20.8, OTM call; high relative volume. 9.5 put 86.5 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 17.9; elevated relative volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sharp hawkish Fed surprise reversing bond rally

!Break below $86 max pain triggers dealer de-hedging

!Vol spike from macro event could hurt short vol positions

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $88.00/$89.00 call spread Why now: Buy 87/88 call spread for defined-risk upside with 30-37 DTE.	Time decay if move delayed; resistance at $88 may cap.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $85.50/$84.00 put spread Why now: Sell 86/85 put vertical to collect premium with bullish-neutral bias.	Bond selloff could push TLT below $86, testing max pain support.
Long call	Conditional	Buy 2026-07-24 $88.50 call Why now: Buy OTM call for leveraged upside in low vol environment; gamma scalping opportunity.	Theta decay accelerates if TLT stays flat; premium paid is lost if wrong.

Top Plays

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $88.00/$89.00 call spread

Buy 88/89 call spread for 0.30-0.36 debit, max gain 0.64, max loss 0.36.

Why this play: Best fits bullish thesis with defined risk and low vol; uses support near $86 and targets $88 resistance.

Debit: $0.30-$0.36

Max loss: $0.36

BE: $88.36

Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $86.05 invalidation level or near expiration if target met.

Traders seeking capped upside with manageable risk in low vol environment.

Long call

Buy 2026-07-24 $88.50 call

Buy 88.50 call for 0.41-0.50 debit, unlimited upside, max loss 0.50.

Why this play: Offers leveraged upside, suitable for low vol and gamma scalping, but higher risk than spread.

Debit: $0.41-$0.50

Max loss: $0.50

BE: $89.00

Mgmt: Monitor gamma scalping; exit if TLT drops below $86.05 or if vol spikes unexpectedly.

Aggressive traders comfortable with higher risk and time decay.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $85.50/$84.00 put spread

Sell 85.50/84 put spread for 0.19-0.23 credit, max loss 1.27.

Why this play: Bullish-neutral but limited upside; lower priority given strong bullish bias.

Credit: $0.19-$0.23

Max loss: $1.27

BE: $85.27

Mgmt: Close if TLT falls below $86.05 to limit losses; take profit at 50% of max gain.

Traders seeking premium collection with moderate bullish view and tight risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF TLT holds above $86.05 support with low vol and bullish flow. → THEN buy the 2026-07-31 $88/$89 call spread for 0.30-0.36 debit.

IFIF TLT holds above $86.05 with bullish momentum. → THEN buy the 2026-07-24 $88.50 call for 0.41-0.50 debit.

IFIF TLT stays above $86.05 with no breakdown. → THEN sell the 2026-07-31 $85.50/$84 put spread for 0.19-0.23 credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF TLT breaks below $86.05. → THEN exit all bullish positions to limit losses.

EXITIF TLT reaches $88 resistance with slowing momentum. → THEN take profit on bull call spread and long call.

Tactical Summary

Bullish thesis: low vol, dealer gamma near $86 max pain. Key support $86.05, resistance $88. Primary play: bull call spread (88/89). Alternatives: long call for leverage, put credit spread for premium. Risk: break below $86.05 exits.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.