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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.77EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.49

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.77

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TLT pinned near $86 MP with bullish flow & low vol. Positive gamma supports drift to $86.95. High confidence.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow, +1 pinning, +1 MP, +1 low VIX =9.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, low vol, MP alignment.
Conflicts: Resistance $86.95, gamma flip $80.

📌Pinned at $86 MP

💰Bullish flow supports upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low vol compresses range.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

+$857M GEX supports pinning.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow net premium positive.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at MP.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins & low vol event-driven.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$85.14$86.31

Pinning, drift to $86.31.

Next 1 week

$84.87$86.57

Upside to $86.57.

Next 2 weeks

$84.49$86.95

Drift to $86.95.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-15); $85 (2026-06-17); $86 (2026-06-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $85.14/$86.31; 1w $84.87/$86.57

Support: $85.50 · $85.00 · $84.49

Resistance: $86.00 · $86.95 · $87.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,928 (6.7% below spot)

Structural: S: $85.5, $85; R: $86, $86.95; Flip $80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+857.2M

DEX: +191.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,928 (6.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: +$857M GEX pinning; +191M shares DEX.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV low vs VIX, cheap.

Term structure: Contango, event kinks.

Skew: Flat skew; tail put at $80.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $77.87M, P/C vol ratio 0.52, bullish call dominance.

Directional prints: 37.9 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 14750 vs OI 1152 (12.8x); aggressive buying. Preferred read: bullish call buying. 22.1 call 81 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol 9750 vs OI 505 (19.3x); strong demand. Preferred read: bullish call buying. 20.2 call 81.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol 7400 vs OI 300 (24.7x); high relative volume. Preferred read: bullish call buying.

Unusual: 11.9 call 90.5 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 6795 vs OI 153 (44.4x); OTM call buying, speculative bet. Preferred read: bought. 24 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol 5450 vs OI 149 (36.6x); ITM call sweep. Preferred read: bought. 26.3 call 80 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3450 vs OI 115 (30.0x); ITM call activity. Preferred read: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $80 flip.

!Rate hike surprise.

!Vol spike breaks pinning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $86.00/$87.00 call spread Why now: Positive gamma, call dominance, net premium $77M bullish. Fits defined-risk debit spread.	Stock stays below 86; loss of debit paid.
Put credit spread	Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$83.00 put spread Why now: High put OI at 85, net short gamma, limited risk. Collect premium with bullish drift.	Drop below 85 brings max loss.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $86.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $85.00 put Why now: Low vol environment, bullish flow, positive gamma. Short put at support collects premium.	Unlimited downside if stock collapses.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00 cash-secured put Why now: Strong support at 85, put premium attractive with bullish bias.	Stock falls below 85, obligation to buy.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $86.00/$87.00 call spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $86/$87 call spread to capture upside within pinned range.

Why this play: Directly leverages positive gamma and bullish flow with defined risk, best aligned with high-confidence drift to $86.95.

Debit: $0.34-$0.41

Max loss: $0.41

BE: $86.41

Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $85.5; take profit near $87 or expiry.

Traders seeking limited-risk bullish exposure to TLT's expected drift.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-17 $86.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $85.00 put

Buy $86 call, sell $85 put to express bullish view with premium credit.

Why this play: Unlimited upside potential funded by selling put at support, suitable for low vol environment.

Debit: $0.08-$0.10

Max loss: $85.00

BE: $85.00

Mgmt: Roll or close if TLT drops below $85.5; let call ride for upside.

Traders with higher risk tolerance who want leverage and income.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$83.00 put spread

Sell $85/$83 put spread to earn credit while staying within defined risk.

Why this play: Collects premium with high probability of success given strong put support at $85 and bullish drift.

Credit: $0.42-$0.52

Max loss: $1.48

BE: $84.48

Mgmt: Monitor vol; exit if TLT closes below $85.

Conservative traders seeking income with a bullish outlook but limited risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTLT above $85.5, near $86, premium ~0.38 → Buy 2026-07-17 $86/$87 call spread

IFTLT above $85.5, put spread credit ~0.48 → Sell 2026-07-17 $85/$83 put spread

IFTLT above $85.5, risk reversal credit ~0.09 → Buy $86 call / sell $85 put

Exit Triggers

EXITTLT breaks below $85.5 → Exit all bullish positions

EXITTLT reaches $86.95 → Take profit on bull call spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish drift to $86.95 with support at $85.5. Enter bull call spread dips, put credit spread or risk reversal for premium. Exit if $85.5 breaks; take profits near $86.95. Cash-secured put also viable.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.