Home Options TLTReports

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.19EOD only

Max Pain

$85.50

Next expiry Jun 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.46

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.69

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish: low vol, positive gamma pinning at $86 MP, bullish flow. Risks: market weakness, $87.3 resistance.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow +1 GEX pin +1 spot near MP +0.5 VIX 18 = 9.0

Supports: Low vol, bullish flow, positive gamma, MP.
Conflicts: SPY/QQQ down, $87.3 resistance, $80 flip.

📈$1.7B GEX pin at $86

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low IV (VIX 18).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX $1.7B pinning.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium positive, bullish P/C.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $86.13 near $86 MP.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple MP pins Jun 17-22.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$85.91$86.76

MP $86, support 85.91

Next 1 week

$85.72$86.95

Resistance 86.95, bullish flow

Next 2 weeks

$85.36$87.30

Target 87.3, low vol support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-17); $86 (2026-06-18); $85 (2026-06-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $85.91/$86.76; 1w $85.72/$86.95

Support: $85.50 · $85.36 · $85.00

Resistance: $87.30 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,793 (7.3% below spot)

Structural: MP $86 (Jun 17-18), $85 (Jun 22). EM 85.91/86.76, 85.72/86.95. Support 85.5,85.36,85.0. Resistance 87.3,90.0. Gamma flip $80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.7B

DEX: +213.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,793 (7.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Long gamma $1.7B, long delta +213M, flip ~$80.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV low vs VIX 18; cheap for long vol.

Term structure: Flat with event kinks.

Skew: Skew flat, no opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bullish net premium $60.4M, P/C vol ratio 0.44, strong call buying.

Directional prints: 8.8 call 89 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 33.8x; OTM call accumulation 4161ct, bullish bet for July upside. 9.8 call 85 ITM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 20.4x; aggressive ITM call buying, bullish directional positioning. 45.7 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 14750 vs OI 1152; deep ITM call buying, likely directional with high IV.

Unusual: 31.6 call 82.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 15.7x; expiring tomorrow, large call buy near the money, unusual timing. 10.1 put 88 ITM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 16.4x; unusual put activity, either hedging or bearish speculation. 7.7 put 86.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 11.7x; bearish put buying for protection against near-term decline.

Risks & Catalysts

!SPY/QQQ spillover

!$87.3 resistance

!$80 gamma flip risk

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Conditional	Sell 2026-08-21 $85.00/$84.00 put wing and $89.00/$90.00 call wing Why now: Low IV and bullish flow suggest price may stay range-bound; iron condor harvests time decay with defined risk.	Upside cap above $89; losses if price moves beyond wings.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $87.00/$88.00 call spread Why now: Strong call flow, low vol, gamma pinning at $86.	Max loss limited to debit; time decay if stagnant.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $85.50/$85.00 put spread Why now: High put OI at 85/84, low IV, bullish flow provides cushion.	Assignment risk below short strike; limited max loss.
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $87.00 call Why now: Low IV, OTM call accumulation, bullish vol skew.	Time decay; needs move within timeframe.

Top Plays

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $87.00 call

Buy $87 call expiring 2026-07-17; limited risk, unlimited upside.

Why this play: Directly benefits from bullish flow and low IV; OTM call accumulation supports upside.

Debit: $0.45-$0.56

Max loss: $0.56

BE: $87.56

Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $85.5; take profits at $88+ or on IV spike.

Aggressive bullish traders

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $87.00/$88.00 call spread

Buy $87/$88 call spread expiring 2026-07-17; max gain $0.68, max loss $0.32.

Why this play: Defined risk, strong call flow, gamma pinning at $86 makes $87/$88 spread attractive.

Debit: $0.26-$0.32

Max loss: $0.32

BE: $87.32

Mgmt: Let expire or close at $0.50+ profit; exit if below $85.5.

Moderate bullish traders seeking defined risk

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $85.50/$85.00 put spread

Sell $85.50/$85.00 put spread expiring 2026-07-10; collect $0.13-$0.16 credit.

Why this play: High put OI at $85/$84 and low IV provide cushion; bullish flow supports price above $85.5.

Credit: $0.13-$0.16

Max loss: $0.34

BE: $85.34

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if TLT drops below $85.5.

Conservative bullish traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF TLT holds above $85.5 and breaks above $86.5 with bullish flow → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $87 call for $0.45-$0.56

IFIF TLT trades above $86.5 and gamma pinning at $86 holds → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $87/$88 call spread for $0.26-$0.32

IFIF TLT stays above $85.5 and put OI at $85 supports → THEN sell 2026-07-10 $85.50/$85.00 put spread for $0.13-$0.16 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITIF TLT breaks below $85.5 → THEN exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with low IV and gamma pinning at $86. Key support $85.5, resistance $87.3. Ranked plays: Long Call, Bull Call Spread, Put Credit Spread. Manage on break below $85.5. Monitor SPY/QQQ for spillover.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.