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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.72EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.58

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-0.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with high confidence driven by strong dealer positive gamma, spot at max pain, low vol, and VIX at 16. Expect range-bound trading with upside drift toward resistance at $87.28.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive, +1 spot near MP, +1 VIX 16 → effective confidence 9/10.

Supports: Positive dealer gamma ($1.4B), spot at max pain, low vol regime, VIX at 16.
Conflicts: Mixed flow and vulnerability to exogenous rate shocks.

🟢Dealer gamma +$1.4B strongly supports pinning near $86.

📊Spot exactly at max pain $86, reinforcing range-bound action.

🔻Gamma flip at $80 a tail risk if sharp selloff occurs.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Implied volatility is low relative to historical and VIX, indicating range-bound expectations and limited fear.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$1.4B is strongly positive, acting as sticky support and limiting downside moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net flow is mixed but dominated by positive gamma positioning from dealers.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $86 exactly at max pain, strong pinning dynamics with dealer hedging.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol, positive gamma, and multi-day max pain concentrations suggest an extended range-bound theme with gradual drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$85.73$86.65

Positive gamma and spot at MP support push toward $86.65.

Next 1 week

$85.45$86.93

Upside drift to $86.93 on dealer hedging and low vol.

Next 2 weeks

$85.11$87.28

Gradual move to $87.28 resistance absent shocks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-17); $86 (2026-06-18); $85 (2026-06-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $85.73/$86.65; 1w $85.45/$86.93

Support: $85.50 · $85.11 · $85.00

Resistance: $87.28 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,898 (7.2% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $86 (2026-06-17/18), $85 (2026-06-22); EM guardrails 2d $85.73/$86.65, 1w $85.45/$86.93; support $85.5, $85.11, $85; resistance $87.28, $90; gamma flip ~$80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.4B

DEX: +196.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,898 (7.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX +$1.4B, DEX +196M shares long; gamma flip at ~$80 based on put OI concentration (117,898 contracts, 7.2% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV is low (~18%) vs VIX 16.4, implying options are cheap relative to equity volatility — favors long premium strategies.

Term structure: Term structure is slightly upward sloping but flat overall, indicating no near-term event premium.

Skew: Skew is negative (puts > calls), suggesting demand for downside protection. Opportunity: buy upside call spreads to capture drift with cheap vol.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium ~$70.9M, heavy call buying, P/C vol ratio 0.90 favoring calls.

Directional prints: 44.1 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 12.8x on 14,750 vol vs 1,152 OI, bought; aggressive bullish bet. 28.9 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 21.9x on 5,450 vol vs 249 OI, bought; bullish continuation. 14.6 call 91 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 13.0x on 8,112 vol vs 625 OI, bought OTM; speculative upside.

Unusual: 9.5 call 89.5 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 15.1x, low IV 9.5% for OTM call; suspiciously cheap, likely bought as lottery. 10.2 put 84.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 11.1x, low IV put; possibly protective hedge or bearish bet. 146.5 call 65 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 9.8x, massive IV 146.5%; deep ITM call, unusual pricing; likely bought for leverage.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spike in interest rates could break pinning and trigger selloff.

!Gamma flip at $80 if sharp move lower leads to accelerated selling.

!Low vol environment may dislocate on unexpected macro event.

!Mixed flow could shift dealer positioning without clear catalyst.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $87.50/$90.50 call spread Why now: Bullish bias, strong call flow, low vol. Spread reduces cost.	Capped upside; max loss if spot stays below lower strike. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-24 $84.50/$81.50 put spread Why now: Low vol, put skew low; collect premium with safety net.	Max loss if spot drops below short put strike.
Long call	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $86.50 call Why now: Strong call flow, high confidence in bullish bias, convexity.	Time decay if move doesn't materialize quickly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Conditional	Buy 2026-08-21 $79.00 call + sell 2026-07-02 $87.50 call Why now: Low vol environment; calendar premium capture.	If spot moves quickly, short call may cap upside. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (65%).

Top Plays

Long call

Buy 2026-07-24 $86.50 call

Express bullish directional view with leveraged upside and limited downside.

Why this play: Highest upside convexity given strong bullish bias and low vol. Outranks spreads by capturing unlimited gains if rally exceeds $90.50.

Debit: $0.75-$0.91

Max loss: $0.91

BE: $87.41

Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $85.5 or if vol spikes above 20. Take partial profits at $90.

Aggressive traders with high conviction in upside drift to $88+.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $84.50/$81.50 put spread

Sell put spread to collect premium with buffer if bullish thesis holds.

Why this play: Low vol and put skew favor premium collection. Outranks bull call spread due to higher liquidity and defined risk with high probability.

Credit: $0.30-$0.36

Max loss: $2.64

BE: $84.14

Mgmt: Close if TLT drops below $85.5. Roll strikes if theta decay accelerates.

Conservative traders seeking income with safety net.

Bull call spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $87.50/$90.50 call spread

Buy call spread to profit from moderate upside to $90.50.

Why this play: Direct bullish bet with defined risk/reward. Outranks PMCC due to lower capital requirement and simplicity.

Debit: $0.31-$0.38

Max loss: $0.38

BE: $87.88

Mgmt: Exit at max profit or if TLT breaks below $85.5. Adjust strikes if gamma exposure increases. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Traders preferring capped risk and clear profit target.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTLT pulls back to $85.5 support with bullish reversal candle. → Buy 2026-07-24 $86.50 call (long call).

IFTLT stabilizes above $85.5 with low volatility. → Sell 2026-07-24 $84.50/$81.50 put spread (put credit spread).

Adjustment Triggers

ADJTLT rallies to $87.28 resistance. → Close 50% of long call position.

Exit Triggers

EXITTLT closes below $85.5. → Exit all positions: close long call and buy back put spread if open.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with upside drift to $87.28 resistance. Use $85.5 as invalidation. Enter via long call on pullback or put credit spread on stability. Take partial profits at $87.28. Exit if $85.5 broken.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.