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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.35EOD only

Max Pain

$86.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.35

0.4% from close

Price Gap

-1.35

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Strong $+2.1B gamma and bullish flow pin TLT near max pain $86-$87. Expect drift to $87.5-$88 with confidence 9/10.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base5 +2GEX/flow aligned +1positive gamma +1spot near MP +0.5VIX18

Supports: Pos gamma $2.1B, bullish flow, low vol
Conflicts: Resistance $88, gamma flip $80 far

🔒Spot pinned $86-$87 by $+2.1B gamma

📈Bullish flow, upside to $87.5-$88

⚠️Resistance $88 key

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low IV vs hist, cheap premiums.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pos gamma $2.1B pins near $86-$87.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium, calls > puts.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at max pain $86-$87.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near expiry max pain dates 6/26-6/30.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$86.98$87.75

Gamma pin to $87.75

Next 1 week

$86.59$88.13

Max pain $87 6/29 supports

Next 2 weeks

$86.21$88.51

Wide range $86.21-$88.51

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $86 (2026-06-26); $87 (2026-06-29); $86 (2026-06-30)

EM guardrails: 2d $86.98/$87.75; 1w $86.59/$88.13

Support: $86.50 · $86.21 · $86.00

Resistance: $88.00 · $88.51 · $95.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,548 (8.4% below spot)

Structural: Support 86.5,86.21,86. Resistance 88,88.51,95. Gamma flip $80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.1B

DEX: +217.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,548 (8.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net long gamma $2.1B, DEX +217.6M, flip $80.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Cheap vs VIX 18.4, favors buying.

Term structure: Flat contango, no kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated; sell puts $86.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net positive $25.7M with put/call vol ratio 0.73, calls dominate.

Directional prints: 6.3 call 87.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 23.1, massive buy likely; bullish bet. 76.6 call 72 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 9.9, deep ITM call bought, leveraged upside bet.

Unusual: 6.3 call 87.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 23.1, extreme; likely bought for bullish momentum. 10.3 put 86.5 OTM 2026-07-01 — Vol/OI 13.3, high; possibly sold as premium, bearish if bought. 76.6 call 72 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol/OI 9.9, IV 76.6%; deep ITM, likely long delta.

Risks & Catalysts

!VIX spike

!Rate surprise

!Resistance holds

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $87.50/$88.50 call spread Why now: Bullish bias with defined risk; OTM call debit spread to capture drift.	Resistance at $88 may cap upside; time decay if move delayed.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $86.00/$85.00 put spread Why now: Collect premium with defined risk; high call gamma supports price floor.	VIX spike or rate surprise could break support below $86.
Cash-secured put	Weak	Sell 2026-07-10 $86.00 cash-secured put Why now: Cash-secured put aligns with target entry at $86-$87; low IV and bullish flow.	Assignment risk if price drops below strike; opportunity cost if rally strong.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-07-10 $88.00 call / sell 2026-07-10 $86.00 put Why now: Cheap financing due to high call demand; aligns with bullish flow and gamma.	Uncapped downside if put is deep ITM; requires active management.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $87.50/$88.50 call spread

Buy $87.50/$88.50 call spread to profit from target move to $87.5-$88.

Why this play: Directly captures bullish drift with defined risk; high confidence from flow and gamma support.

Debit: $0.23-$0.28

Max loss: $0.28

BE: $87.78

Mgmt: Exit if TLT drops below $86.5 or target reached; take profit at 50% max gain.

Traders seeking leveraged upside with capped risk.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-10 $88.00 call / sell 2026-07-10 $86.00 put

Buy $88 call, sell $86 put for near-zero cost bullish exposure.

Why this play: Cheap bullish financing due to high call demand; aligns with flow and gamma pinch.

Debit: $0.05-$0.06

Max loss: $86.00

BE: $86.00

Mgmt: Monitor gamma; roll if TLT breaks $86.5; close at target.

Traders wanting unlimited upside with small downside risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $86.00/$85.00 put spread

Sell $86/$85 put spread to profit from bullish floor.

Why this play: Collects premium with defined risk; high call gamma supports floor near $86.

Credit: $0.09-$0.11

Max loss: $0.89

BE: $85.89

Mgmt: Exit early if VIX spikes or TLT drops below $86.5.

Income-focused traders comfortable with neutral-bullish stance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTLT holds above $86.5 and retests support → Enter Bull Call Spread: Buy 2026-04-10 $87.50/$88.50 call spread

Adjustment Triggers

ADJTLT drops below $86.5 (invalidation) → Exit all bullish positions; consider defensive strategies

Exit Triggers

EXITTLT reaches $88 resistance → Take profit on Bull Call Spread at 50% max gain; consider rolling

Tactical Summary

Bullish directional on TLT with strong gamma support near $86-$87. Aim for drift to $87.5-$88 over next 2 days. Preferred setup: bull call spread on pullback to $86.5. Invalidation: break below $86.5.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.