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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.02EOD only
Max Pain
$84.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.55
0.7% from close
Price Gap
+0.98
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness4 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Wait for higher IV; avoid selling premium
Invalidation: Break below support at $81.19 or gamma flip at $80
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 16.5% < VIX 18.1%, low premium environment
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Flat contango; near-term IV very low (11-13%)

📉IV below VIX limits premium collection
📊Flat term structure offers little time premium advantage

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-587.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,866 (3.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $84 (5/20), $85 (5/22), $84 (5/27); put OI concentrated at $82.87 (3.6% below spot)

Verdict: Moderate pin risk; spot below max pain suggests possible upward drift toward $84-$85

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $84.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $84.00 call
Short 2026-06-18 $84 call, long 2026-07-17 $84 call; captures time decay with limited tail risk.
Debit: $0.40-$0.49
Max loss: $0.49
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Enter near $0.40-0.49; exit at 50% max gain or at expiry; stop if spot breaks $81.19.

Risk Alerts

!Heavy negative GEX (-$587.6M) increases gamma risk near expiration
!Low IV environment may not compensate for tail risk
!Spot below max pain ($84) with call OI wall at $90-$110 suggests resistance
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.