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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.57EOD only

Max Pain

$86.50

Next expiry Apr 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.46

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.07

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.60

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 21, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

Avg IV ~13.9 sits below spot VIX 18.92; front-dated IV is anomalous (very low ATM day0-day2, spike in short-dated skew).

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-end dislocation: 0–2d ATM IV ~5–6% (~600–700 bps below 7–30d which is ~11–13%); 60–90d tenors modestly richer (~14–16%). Distortion strongest in expiries 1–7d and 21–30d tenors.

📌Max-pain clustered at $86 with heavy put OI ~81k (~2% below spot).

🧭Dealer GEX +$926M supporting subdued directional gamma.

⚠️Early-assignment risk for ITM short options near pin; consider buffer for early-exercise.

📅Upcoming earnings/dividend windows amplify pin/assignment risk; check calendar before roll.

💧Poor bid/ask depth when rolling near strikes — liquidity/roll risk elevated.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+926.0M)

Gamma flip: ~$85.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 81,153 (2.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated at $86 (key pin); call OI wall $95–110; gamma flip ~85.0.

Verdict: High pin risk into expiries cited; market ~0.3% from max-pain — susceptible to pin/bunching. Note elevated early-assignment risk for ITM shorts and thin bid/ask when attempting roll, which can widen realized loss on adjustments.

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-05-22 $86.50/$86.00 put wing and $89.00/$89.50 call wing

Sell 86.50/86 put wing and 89/89.50 call wing to collect premium while capping tail risk and benefiting from low front IV.

Credit: $0.24-$0.30

Max loss: $0.20

BE: 86.20 / 89.30

Mgmt: Close or widen if price breaks toward a wing or VIX>25; trim into pinning/expiry week.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-22 $86.50/$86.00 put spread

Sell 86.50/86.00 May put spread to harvest short-dated skewed bid while limiting downside.

Credit: $0.18-$0.23

Max loss: $0.27

BE: $86.27

Mgmt: Take profit on 50-70% of max gain; roll only with clear support and liquidity.

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-06-18 $86.00 cash-secured put

Sell 06-18 $86 cash-secured put to collect premium and potentially acquire stock at a discount.

Credit: $1.12-$1.38

Max loss: $84.62

BE: $84.62

Mgmt: Allocate sizing for assignment; close if underlying drops below 86.5 or VIX spikes.

Risk Alerts

!Break and hold below gamma flip ~85.0 → rapid re-pricing and elevated short-gamma pain

!VIX spike >25 or fast rate move → front IV repricing and dealer flow reversal

!Large option unwinds at the $95–110 call wall altering dealer hedges

!Early-assignment on ITM short options around pin (esp. ahead of ex-div/earnings)

!Poor roll liquidity — wide spreads and slippage when adjusting positions

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.