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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.75EOD only

Max Pain

$86.50

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.53

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.25

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.63

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 6.5 (given): base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX pinning; +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19.12

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 14.1% vs VIX 19.12 IV is depressed vs market vol

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-week IVs are extremely low (2d ATM 8.0%; 7d ATM 8.6%); slight lift in mid-dates (18-46d ATM ~10.8-10.9%) — mild upward slope that favors selling nearer-dated premium but better absolute credits in the 30-45 DTE band.

🔒Low IV (Avg 14.1%, ATM ~10.8% at 32d) — small absolute credits; favor tight defined-risk structures.

📌Pinning regime (+$1.0B GEX, MP ~$86) concentrates dealer gamma around $86—supports short premium staying OTM near spot.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At (spot $86.75 vs MP cluster ~$86; pre-computed: Spot vs MP: At)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$1.0B) — strong positive GEX magnitude

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Gamma flip ~ $86; below this dealers may amplify downside; above it dealer hedging is less negative for sellers.

OI concentrations: Large put OI at $86 (113,897) and concentrated call OI from $90-$110 (notably $90, $95, $100 calls). Near-term GEX magnets at $87.00 (+$244M), $86.50 (+$24.7M) reinforce pin/mean-reversion inside the $86-$87 area.

Verdict: Favorable — pinning concentrated around $86-$87 supports high-probability credit positions, but the low IV means credit per trade is modest; manage size and use defined-risk structures.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell 85 / buy 82.50 put spread 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)

30-45 DTE band (May15 ATM ~10.8%) gives the best balance of theta vs IV; $85 is inside the 1-week/2-week EM bounds but still ~1% below spot and near put OI support ($85 put OI 11,655 and large $86 put wall). Pinning near $86 increases probability the spread expires OTM.

Credit: $0.35-$0.55

Max loss: $2.15

BE: 84.65

Mgmt: Take profits at 60-70% of max credit; roll down 1-2 strikes or widen if price closes below $86 with increased IV; cut losses and consider closing if underlying closes below $85 (one-time close below the 1-week EM lower bound $85.86) or if spread hits 70% of max loss.

covered call

Buy TLT and sell 87.50 call 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)

Low IV makes covered call income small but attractive when paired with long bond exposure; 87.50 short call sits inside the 1-week EM upside bound but > spot and near significant call OI at 87 and 87.5 that may cap upside. This is a conservative income play that benefits from pinning.

Credit: $0.20-$0.35

Max loss: unlimited on long stock minus premium (approx stock basis - credit)

BE: $86.30

Mgmt: Close or roll call if TLT trades >87.00 intraday and shows follow-through; take 50-70% of premium on profitable early closes (if called away is acceptable). If spot falls below $85.86, re-evaluate long stock thesis and consider closing calls to reduce downside exposure.

iron condor

Sell 85 / buy 83 put spread and sell 88.50 / buy 90 call spread 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)

Defined-risk wide wings inside the 32d expected move (~[$84.52 - $88.98]) capture theta while respecting the pin near $86. Short put side sits near put OI/support; short call side stays below large call walls (90/92) to reduce one-sided tail risk.

Credit: $0.60-$0.90

Max loss: $1.50

BE: Lower: ~84.40 / Upper: ~89.40 (approx)

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is touched, tighten wings (roll the touched side out >7d or convert to single-side put/call spread) or close if price closes beyond the wing (e.g., daily close <83 or >90). If IV spikes >+30% intraday, consider reducing size.

weekly defined-risk call spread

Sell 86.50 / buy 87.50 call spread 2026-04-20 (7 DTE)

Short-dated defined-risk call spread captures front-week theta where pinning is strong and expected move is tiny (7d ATM ~8.6%). Use weekly only when you want fast theta and are willing to accept small credits due to low IV; ideal as tactical intraday/high-probability play.

Credit: $0.12-$0.20

Max loss: $0.88

BE: Upper breakeven ~86.62

Mgmt: Close at 70% of max profit or immediately if price closes >87.00 (into the 2d/1w EM upside); if filled and IV collapses, consider holding; cut losses if spread reaches 60% of max loss or underlying closes above 87.50.

cash-secured put (CSP)

Sell 84.50 put 2026-04-20 (7 DTE) or 2026-05-15 (32 DTE) depending on desired duration

Shorter-dated CSPs provide high probability to collect small premium while being close to put OI/support (85 put cluster). Use the weekly for quick theta or the 32d for slightly larger credit; keep size small because absolute credits are limited in low IV.

Credit: $0.10-$0.30

Max loss: Strike - credit - cash-secured (e.g., 84.50 - credit)

BE: 84.40 (approx mid credit)

Mgmt: Take profits at 50-70% of premium; roll down 1 strike and out 1-3 weeks if tested; close if price prints a daily close below $85.00 or if IV rises >+50% and puts widen materially.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip ~$86 — sustained trade/close below $86 amplifies downside; exit or hedge short-credit positions if price breaches and holds below this level.

!Low absolute IV (Avg IV 14.1%, ATM ~10-11%) — premium per contract is small; avoid oversized naked exposure and prefer defined-risk structures.

!Concentrated OI and GEX magnets at $86.50-$87.00 — while supportive for pinning, a sudden directional flow could push price quickly to a nearby heavy call wall (e.g., $90) and cause one-sided gamma events.

!Unusual large call flow at $89.00 ($4.4M net call flow) and elevated flows at $87.00/$86.50 — watch for directional institutional buying that could re-price the wings and spike IV.

!No earnings/ex-dividend data provided — absence noted. If dividend or ex-date is announced, covered-call sellers face early assignment risk.

Read the Theta analysis for TLT for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.