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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.11EOD only
Max Pain
$82.50
Next expiry Aug 14, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.54
0.7% from close
Price Gap
+0.39
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 12, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 14, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness3 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Wait for better conditions
Invalidation: Spot breaks $84 or $86
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 14.7% vs VIX 17.3; IV below VIX
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Contango; short-term IV low (7-10%) with high skew due to pin; longer-term normal

⚠️Low IV 14.7% and negative gamma -$701M risk; premium selling challenged.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-701.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 80,567 (5.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain at $86 (5/15), $85 (5/18,5/20). Put OI wall at $80, call wall $90-$110

Verdict: Pin risk moderate; spot straddles key strikes; avoid holding through expiration.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $84.00/$83.00 put spread
Sell $84/$83 put spread, collect premium with buffer.
Credit: $0.20-$0.25
Max loss: $0.75
BE: $83.75
Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or if spot breaks $83.71.
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $86.00/$87.00 call spread
Sell $86/$87 call spread to cap upside risk.
Credit: $0.16-$0.19
Max loss: $0.81
BE: $86.19
Mgmt: Exit if spot nears $85.5; monitor gamma shifts.

Risk Alerts

!Negative gamma (GEX -$701M) amplifies moves.
!Pin risk near $85-$86 strikes.
!Low IV limits premium collection.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.