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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.07EOD only

Max Pain

$86.50

Next expiry Apr 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.46

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.57

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.61

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

TLT IVs (avg ~13%) are meaningfully below equity VIX (~18.9%).

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term shows asymmetric put skew (day0/day2 elevated puts vs calls) then low-to-flat term structure; short-dated flows dominate.

📌Max-pain pins clustered at $86–$87 (multiple expiries)

🟢Dealer GEX net +$1.1B supports pinning and theta capture

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.1B)

Gamma flip: ~$85.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 81,141 (2.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~2.4% below spot (put wall ~81k); max-pain pins $87/$86 across 4/20–4/24 expiries.

Verdict: High pin risk — spot sitting at/near max-pain; limited near-term downside cushion until below 85–86.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-22 $87.00/$86.00 put spread

Collect high put premium with defined risk if TLT holds above gamma flip; cheap IV and strong OI.

Credit: $0.36-$0.45

Max loss: $0.55

BE: $86.55

Mgmt: Trim or close if close <85 or IV spikes >+5 pts; roll wider/down only with credit.

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $88.00/$91.00 call spread

Sell calls to harvest premium against call skew; defined risk if rates rerate up.

Credit: $0.50-$0.61

Max loss: $2.39

BE: $88.61

Mgmt: Close or roll if TLT nears 88 or IV jumps; keep small size vs puts.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-05-22 $87.00/$84.00 put wing and $88.00/$91.00 call wing

Short 87/84 put and 88/91 call wings to define risk; position size 1–2% of portfolio per trade, max 4% total. Entry when IV rank 20–50 and bid credit ≥0.40.

Credit: $1.16-$1.41

Max loss: $1.59

BE: 85.59 / 89.41

Mgmt: If TLT ≤84.5 or put side debit >50% of max loss, buy back puts and reestablish wider put spread for equal or greater credit; if TLT ≥87.5 or call side debit >50% max loss, symmetric action on calls. Close full position if IV rises >+5 pts or loss >3% portfolio.

Risk Alerts

!Break below gamma flip 85 amplifies dealer selling and gamma-driven moves

!Sudden IV spike or large Treasury move can invert thesis

!Concentration of calls at 95–110 can produce asymmetric tail if rates rerate

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.