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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.51EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Jul 6, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.37
0.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Defined-risk credit spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $85 resistance or VIX spikes above 20
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV 17.33 < VIX 18.43, below VIX
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Elevated near-term call IV (0DTE 59%) decaying to ~12% by week 2; event risk indicated. Rest of curve flat contango.

⚠️Near-term call IV spike (0DTE 59%) suggests event risk; avoid naked call selling.
📉Dealer short gamma (-$772M) and bearish flow amplify downside risk.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-772.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 81,685 (4.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $85 for 0-5DTE; Put OI concentration at $80 (gamma flip).

Verdict: Elevated pin risk near $85 due to max pain alignment with resistance and short gamma. Spot below max pain suggests potential drift higher.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $85.00/$87.00 call spread
Defined-risk bearish play capitalizing on resistance at $85 and short gamma pressure.
Credit: $0.25-$0.30
Max loss: $1.70
BE: $85.30
Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks above $85 or VIX spikes above 20.

Risk Alerts

!Dealer short gamma: -$772M
!Bearish flow: put/call volume ratio 1.62
!Near-term call IV anomaly (0DTE 59%)
!Spot 1.6% below max pain $85
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.