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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.65EOD only

Max Pain

$85.50

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.37

0.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.15

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

ATM IV ~9.7% (30d) vs VIX 18.17 — IV is depressed relative to market and historically low for TLT (Avg IV 13.6%).

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-week ATM IVs: 2026-04-17 ATM ~7.5% and 2026-05-01 ATM ~9.7% — slight contango into the month but overall low absolute vols.

⚠️Low absolute IV (Avg IV 13.6%, front-month ATM 7–10%) limits per-contract credit — need defined-risk structures or size down.

📌Pinning gamma (GEX +$1.3B) and max pain at $86 provide a short-term magnet for price — helps short premium near OI clusters.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.3B)

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 111,327 (1.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Large put OI at $86.00 (111,327 OI) with call OI at $86.00 (90,781) and big GEX at $87.00 (+$515.6M) and $86.50 (+$110.3M). Max pain pins cluster at $86–$86.50.

Verdict: Favorable — strong pinning (GEX +$1.3B) and max pain ~ $86 create a magnet that benefits defined-risk short premium near-the-money; still respect flip below $86 which can accelerate moves.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $86.00/$81.00 put spread

Uses supportive pinning regime and elevated GEX to collect premium with capped downside.

Credit: $0.54-$0.67

Max loss: $4.33

BE: $85.33

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit on close <$85.40

Iron condor

Sell 2026-04-24 $86.00/$81.00 put wing and $88.00/$93.00 call wing

Sell balanced iron condor with ~5-point wings on each side around $86–$88 to remain comfortably inside near-term expected moves.

Credit: $0.26-$0.31

Max loss: $4.69

BE: 85.69 / 88.31

Mgmt: Take partial/total profits at 50–70%; roll wings wider if price trends. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (67%).

Put calendar

Sell 2026-04-24 $86.00 put / buy 2026-05-15 $86.00 put

Sell near-dated puts at/near $86 and buy back-month puts to harvest calendar premium with controlled assignment risk.

Debit: $0.44-$0.53

Max loss: $0.53

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close short leg into elevated flow or before earnings; manage long leg if IV collapses.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings / vol events: Multiple near-term events (2026-04-17, 2026-04-20, 2026-04-22). Do not sell naked premium through these dates — prefer defined-risk or close before the front-week event.

!Gamma flip / support: Gamma flip and strong put OI sit near $86; a break and daily close below $85.40 can accelerate downside and threatens short puts/put spreads.

!Low IV environment: ATM IVs ~7–11% (front-month); low absolute vols cap credits — avoid oversized naked shorts and prefer defined-risk wings or smaller sizes.

!Unusual call flow: Elevated call premium flow and unusual activity out at $92–$97 strikes suggests occasional institutional call buys that could steepen upside moves — watch upside breaks > $88.

!Max pain concentration: Max pain pinned at ~$86 across expirations — be prepared to manage assignment risk around key expirations (2026-04-17, 2026-04-20).

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.