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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.74EOD only

Max Pain

$86.50

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.55

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.24

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.62

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 22, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

Avg IV ~14.5 vs VIX 19; near-term ATM IV ~9 (cheap) with 1d call skew elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Flat-to-low near-term IV, mild longer-dated elevation; use 7–21d tenors to capture theta while avoiding concentrated expiries

📌Spot at/near max-pain $86 with concentrated put OI ~83.9k (pinning)

⚖️Dealer GEX +$763M mutes moves but gamma flip ~85: size and stops matter; prefer defined-risk short-dated spreads and preplanned rolls

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+763.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$85.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 83,900 (1.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated at $86 (~83,900) with call wall $95–$110

Verdict: High pin risk around $86; gamma flip near 85 can trigger dealer hedging—mitigate via smaller size, avoid selling strikes at max-pain, and set roll/stop triggers

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-22 $86.50/$84.50 put spread

Defined-risk short put spread collecting premium while limiting tail exposure vs naked puts.

Credit: $0.57-$0.70

Max loss: $1.30

BE: $85.80

Mgmt: Size small; roll or close if spot<86 or premium compresses; stop if sustained VIX>25 or spot outside guardrails.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-05-15 $86.50/$84.50 put wing and $87.00/$89.00 call wing

Short iron with wide wings to collect two-sided theta with defined risk.

Credit: $0.99-$1.22

Max loss: $0.78

BE: 85.28 / 88.22

Mgmt: Keep tight size, plan roll if spot nears wings, exit on VIX spike or >1.5% TLT gap.

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-05-29 $86.50 cash-secured put

Sell put to earn premium and potentially acquire stock below current spot.

Credit: $0.90-$1.11

Max loss: $85.39

BE: $85.39

Mgmt: Allocate cash, avoid strikes inside 85–87, buy back or roll if spot breaches 86.5 or stress events occur.

Risk Alerts

!Drop below gamma flip 85 -> rapid dealer gamma-induced moves

!VIX spike or 1d IV dislocation erodes premium-selling edge

!Large Treasury/bond-flow shock can invalidate regime

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.