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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.49EOD only

Max Pain

$86.50

Next expiry Apr 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.50

0.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.63

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer theta report is available for April 10, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 6.0 (given); +1 pinning GEX +$1.3B supports pin; -1 low IV (Avg IV 14.0%) reduces credits; +1 spot ~At MP

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 14.0% vs VIX N/A — absolute IV is low for a bond ETF (ATM 30d ~11.9%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Flat/low term structure (2d ATM 13.4% -> 30d ATM 11.9% -> further tenors ~12%). No steep term premium for longer DTEs.

⚖️Low IV (Avg IV 14.0%) reduces per-contract credit — need defined-risk wings or closer strikes to achieve acceptable edge.

📌Pinning regime + large GEX (+$1.3B) concentrates dealer hedging around $86–$87 — helps keep price range tight.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At (spot $86.92 vs max pain ~ $86 across expirations — pre-computed Spot vs MP: At)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$1.3B — strong positive gamma exposure concentrated near $87 strikes)

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Gamma flip ~ $86. Below $86 dealers move from pinning to amplifying downside; be cautious on credits if price trades and holds < $86.

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $95-$110 (large structural calls); near-term call concentration at $87.00 (54,236 OI) and $88.00 (30,143 OI). Put concentration at $86.00 (115,330 total across expirations) and put floor $80.

Verdict: Favorable — strong pin magnets ($86.50-$87.00 GEX clusters) support short-put and iron-condor wings but require defined risk due to low IV.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell 2026-05-08 (30 DTE) 85.00 / 82.50 put spread (cash-secured)

30 DTE gives steady theta with term IV ~11.9%; put wall and GEX pinning around $86–$87 reduce downside probability. Defined risk protects against IV moves in a low-IV regime.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: $2.10

BE: 84.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit; roll down 1-2 strikes or close if TLT prints and closes below $86 (gamma flip). Cut losses if price trades and closes < $85.00 or spread > 50% of max loss.

covered call (income)

Sell 2026-05-08 (30 DTE) 88.00 call against long TLT shares (buy at $86.92) — buy 100 shares + sell 1 call

Pinning + tight expected moves (30d ±$2.33) keep upside chance low to 88. Selling covered calls collects yield in low-IV environment while retaining bond exposure.

Credit: $0.40-$0.80

Max loss: Limited to position in underlying (share downside) less premium collected

BE: Net basis = $86.92 - premium

Mgmt: Close leg if TLT prints > $88 with strong momentum (roll call up if willing to cap more upside). Take profit on premium at 50% realized credit if call erodes. Cut position if price falls and you no longer want to hold the shares (e.g., close if TLT < $84 and implied stress increases).

iron condor

Sell 2026-04-24 (16 DTE) 87.00/88.50 call fly (sell 87C, buy 88.5C) and 84.00/82.50 put fly (sell 84P, buy 82.5P) — expressed as a defined-risk iron-condor (16 DTE)

Short-dated wings inside tight 1-2% expected move window (next 2 weeks bounds $86.09-$87.75). Gamma pin at $87 reduces risk to short calls; defined-risk wings protect against low IV but sharp moves.

Credit: $0.45-$0.90

Max loss: $1.55

BE: Upper/Lower ~ spot ± (credit spread dependent) e.g., lower ~82.55 upper ~88.55

Mgmt: Close at 50% realized profit; tighten or buy back if either short strike is tested intraday 1%+ beyond expected move or if daily close outside EM guardrails (2d $86.24/$87.59).

put spread (near-term weekly)

Sell 2026-04-17 (9 DTE) 86.00 / 84.00 put spread

Very short DTE accelerates theta; pinning and max pain near $86 make short-week puts attractive for small credit. Use defined risk because IV is low and unexpected gaps can hurt naked puts.

Credit: $0.18-$0.35

Max loss: $1.82

BE: 85.82

Mgmt: Take profit at 60% of max credit (quick decay); close or roll if price trades and holds < $86 on daily close or if IV jumps > +3 pts intraday. Cut losses if spread > 50% of max loss.

calendar (buy long-dated put, sell near-term put)

Buy 2026-06-18 (71 DTE) 85.00 put, sell 2026-04-24 (16 DTE) 85.00 put (calendar)

Low front-month IV vs slightly higher back-month (~12.1% at 71d) creates a small calendar edge where you collect near-term theta while keeping protection via longer put. Good when you expect rangebound price around $85–$87.

Max loss: Net debit paid

Mgmt: Sell/adjust if short leg is threatened within 3 trading days of expiry (roll to next weekly) or if forward IV collapses; close long leg if long-dated IV drops materially.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip ~$86 — sustained trade and close below this level will flip dealer behavior from pinning to amplifying downside; exit or hedge credits if TLT closes below $86.

!Low IV environment (Avg IV 14.0%, 30d ATM ~11.9%) — credit per contract is small; favor defined-risk structures and tighter risk controls.

!Max pain concentrated at $86–$87 across near expirations — pinning can hold price but increases assignment risk for short ITM options at expiry.

!Unusual put flow into May/Apr strikes (e.g., heavy net put premium at $115/$94/$96 listed in flow table with net negative flow) — institutional put buying footprint exists; watch for directional purchases that could skew moves.

!No earnings data provided — if company-level events or Fed/Treasury announcements are scheduled, avoid naked short premium; check economic calendar for bond-sensitive macro events.

Read the Theta analysis for TLT for 2026-04-08. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.