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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $79.32EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry Sep 28, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.64
0.8% from close
Price Gap
+0.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
59
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.60
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 25, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 13, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Calendar Spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks $84.30 support or $85.46 resistance
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV (15.6%) below VIX (17.9%)
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Contango with dip at 5 DTE; near-term skew extreme

🔻IV below VIX limits premium collection
📈Bullish flow but dealer short gamma (-$902M)

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-902.3M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $86 across multiple expirations; call wall $90-$110

Verdict: High pin risk near expiration, spot at max pain

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-05 $86.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $86.00 call
Sell 2026-06-05 $86 call, buy 2026-07-17 $86 call; profits from faster decay of short leg.
Debit: $0.60-$0.73
Max loss: $0.73
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if spot < $83.53; adjust if near-term IV collapses.
#2
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-06-05 $84.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $86.00 put
Sell 2026-06-05 $84 put, buy 2026-07-17 $86 put; bullish/neutral with defined risk.
Debit: $1.55-$1.90
Max loss: $1.90
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Manage around $83.53 invalidation; roll if IV shifts.

Risk Alerts

!Dealer short gamma (-$902M) may amplify moves
!Spot at max pain $86 with high OI concentration
!IV below VIX limits premium collection
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.