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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.05EOD only

Max Pain

$86.50

Next expiry Apr 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.52

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.55

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.60

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 20, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

Market IV (avg ~14.3%) is depressed vs VIX 19.5% (cheap vol vs equity fear).

Favorable?

Term structure: Very low ATM IVs in ultra‑short tenors limiting short‑dated premium selling; mid‑to‑long tenors show relatively richer IV where selling is more viable.

📉Ultra‑short IV extremely low — limited edge for short‑dated premium selling

⏳Mid/long tenors offer better premium‑selling opportunities vs near‑term

📌Max‑pain cluster at $86 across nearby expiries supporting pin risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+588.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$85.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 81,222 (1.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~81,222 (~1.8% below spot) with repeated max‑pain at $86 on 4/22, 4/24, 4/27.

Verdict: High pin risk near $86; market likely to gravitate there absent a clear directional shock.

Premium Opportunities

Put calendar

Sell 2026-05-29 $85.00 put / buy 2026-09-18 $85.00 put

Short 5/29 $85 put vs long 9/18 $85 to harvest near-term theta while retaining directional optionality.

Debit: $1.20-$1.47

Max loss: $1.47

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage if price breaks <86.5 or IV spikes; roll short leg down/away or buy back if gamma flip occurs.

Call calendar

Sell 2026-05-22 $88.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $88.00 call

Sell 5/22 $88 call, buy 6/18 $88 call to capture front decay and keep upside exposure.

Debit: $0.36-$0.44

Max loss: $0.44

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close or roll if sustained move away from $86 pins or close <86.5; watch VIX>25.

PMCC / LEAPS diagonal

Buy 2026-10-16 $90.00 call + sell 2026-05-29 $90.00 call

Buy 10/16 $90 call, sell 5/29 $90 call.

Debit: $1.03-$1.26

Max loss: $1.26

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Buy back shorts into volatility spikes or roll when approaching invalidation.

Risk Alerts

!Break and hold below 85.0 (gamma flip) invalidates thesis

!VIX spike >25 or rapid ATM IV repricing

!Dealer GEX unwind or heavy directional flow reversal

!Concentration at $95‑$110 calls can limit upside liquidity

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.