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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $81.95EOD only

Max Pain

$82.50

Next expiry Sep 4, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.60

0.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.55

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Sep 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Sep 2, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 4, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.0% from MP; +1 VIX 15; override: Deterministic base high; pinning and low vol favorable

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV 13.9% vs VIX 15.4% – slightly below

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Contango: front-month IV ~8-9%, back-month ~11-11.5%

📊1d put IV 22.4% vs call 16.5% – extreme put skew; pinning at $86

📈Term structure contango supports selling longer-dated premium

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+771.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 94,628 (6.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $86/85; call wall $90-110; put floor $80

Verdict: Pinning likely around $86-$85 zone; watch expiration pinning

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$83.50 put wing and $86.00/$87.50 call wing

Sell 2026-06-26 $84/$83.50 put and $86/$87.50 call wings; edge from pin risk and narrow range.

Credit: $0.47-$0.58

Max loss: $0.92

BE: 83.42 / 86.58

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust wings if breaks $85.5-$86.5.

Risk Alerts

!Near-term put skew signals hedging pressure

!Spot at max pain $86 – pin risk elevated

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.