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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.25EOD only

Max Pain

$83.50

Next expiry Aug 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.57

0.7% from close

Price Gap

+1.25

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 31, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 1.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV 13.6% vs VIX 18.4% — below VIX, low relative premium

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-end low (7-8%), gradual rise; 1DTE spike due to pinning

📉IV 13.6% < VIX 18.4%: cheap premiums in low vol regime

📌Max pain $86 across expirations with high OI concentration

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.7B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,793 (7.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $86 for 0DTE and 1DTE; put wall at $80

Verdict: Significant pin risk at $86; gamma flip at $80 if breached

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$83.00 put wing and $88.00/$90.00 call wing

Sell $85p/$83p and $88c/$90c for 0.52 credit; max loss $1.48.

Credit: $0.43-$0.52

Max loss: $1.48

BE: 84.48 / 88.52

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or on breach of $85.5 or $87.3.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$84.00 put spread

Sell $85p/$84p for 0.23 credit; max loss $0.77.

Credit: $0.19-$0.23

Max loss: $0.77

BE: $84.77

Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks below $85.5 or after 50% profit.

Risk Alerts

!SPY/QQQ down 1% may pressure TLT

!1DTE IV spike indicates hedging demand

!Breakout from $85.5-$87.3 could trigger gamma flip

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.