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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.80EOD only
Max Pain
$83.50
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.53
0.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.70
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 30, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 30, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short Put Spread at 85/84 or Bull Put Spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks below 84.5 or VIX above 20
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV avg 14.5% < VIX 16.2 – cheap premium, low vol
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Short-term spike from 0DTE, then upward sloping – longer-dated sales preferred

📊GEX +$857M supports pinning; bullish flow (PCR<1)
⚠️Put wall at $80 provides downside floor

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+857.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,928 (6.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max Pain $86 (0DTE), $85 (2DTE). Put OI 117K at $80 (6.7% below spot) gamma floor

Verdict: Moderate pin risk near max pain strikes due to dealer gamma and multiple expirations

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$84.00 put spread
Sells 85/84 put spread to capture premium with defined risk.
Credit: $0.26-$0.32
Max loss: $0.68
BE: $84.68
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below 85.50.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $84.00/$83.00 put wing and $86.00/$87.00 call wing
Sells put and call wings to profit from flat trading.
Credit: $0.50-$0.61
Max loss: $0.39
BE: 83.39 / 86.61
Mgmt: Adjust if vol expands or pin shifts.

Risk Alerts

!0DTE pin at $86 may cause assignment on short options
!Low IV environment: premium collection limited; rely on vol expansion or pin
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.