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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.06EOD only

Max Pain

$82.50

Next expiry Aug 12, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.59

0.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Aug 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Aug 10, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 26, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 1.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV (12.2%) below VIX (18.4%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Contango with front-month ATM IV at 5.6%; put skew elevated near term.

📌Gamma pinning likely near $86-$87 with max pain concentration.

💹IV discount to VIX favors premium selling; elevated put skew adds tail risk.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+2.1B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,548 (8.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins $86 (6/26), $87 (6/29), $86 (6/30); put OI wall at $80; call wall $95-$110.

Verdict: Pinning elevated near $86-$87; dealer GEX +$2.1B supports pinning.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00/$85.00 put spread

Sell Jul 17 $86/$85 put spread; credit 0.14-0.17, defined risk $0.83.

Credit: $0.14-$0.17

Max loss: $0.83

BE: $85.83

Mgmt: Enter at 0.14-0.17; stop at 86.5; exit at 50% profit or near expiry.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip if spot drops to $80

!Elevated put skew near term indicates hedging demand

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.