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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $81.25EOD only

Max Pain

$81.00

Next expiry Sep 21, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.46

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.25

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.61

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Sep 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Sep 18, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 22, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV avg 13.5% vs VIX 17.3, below VIX but 0DTE skew extreme.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Upward sloping from ~9% weeklies to ~11% long-term; 0DTE IV inflated by pinning.

📈GEX +$1.2B, put/call ratio <0.7, bullish flow.

📍Spot at max pain $86, gamma pinning evident.

⚠️0DTE IV extreme (28/27) vs low VIX; event risk.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.2B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 115,540 (7.1% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $86 (0DTE), $86 (2d), $85 (4d); Put floor $80, Call wall $95-$110.

Verdict: Pinning at $86 likely; gamma flip at $80; pinch risk if support fails.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00/$85.00 put spread

Sell $86/$85 put spread Jul 2026

Credit: $0.34-$0.42

Max loss: $0.58

BE: $85.58

Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks below $86

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-07-17 $86.00 cash-secured put

Sell $86 put for 0.89 credit

Credit: $0.73-$0.89

Max loss: $85.11

BE: $85.11

Mgmt: Manage assignment if below $86

Risk Alerts

!Low absolute IV limits premium collection.

!0DTE skew hints at event risk; VIX could expand.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.