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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.76EOD only
Max Pain
$82.50
Next expiry Aug 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.44
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-0.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 7, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 7, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 24, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short Put Spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $85
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV 13% below VIX 18.6
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end put skew elevated; term structure flat after 1W

📊GEX +$2.1B, flow bullish, pinning
⚠️Put skew rich, premium selling attractive

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+2.1B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,070 (8.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max Pain $86; put floor $80; call wall $95-$110

Verdict: Low pin risk; spot above max pain, gamma positive

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$83.00 put spread
Sell 85/83 put spread for 0.12 credit; max loss 1.88.
Credit: $0.09-$0.12
Max loss: $1.88
BE: $84.88
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $86.05 or VIX spikes.
#2
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00 cash-secured put
Sell 85 put for 0.18 credit; max loss 84.82 if assigned.
Credit: $0.14-$0.18
Max loss: $84.82
BE: $84.82
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaks $86.05.

Risk Alerts

!Spot breaks below $85
!VIX spikes above 20
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.