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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.36EOD only

Max Pain

$87.00

Next expiry Jun 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.39

0.4% from close

Price Gap

-0.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 11.8% below VIX 17.6%, cheap vol

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Steep near-term skew with put IV>call IV; back month IV ~10.4% flatter

📉Put skew elevated near term, reflecting hedging

📌Max pain pin at $87, OI concentration

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.9B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 107,566 (8.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $87; put floor $80; call wall $95-$110; heavy put OI at $80-$85

Verdict: Pinning at $87 likely with $1.9B positive GEX; downside protected by put floor

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $86.00/$85.00 put spread

Sell $86/$85 put spread to collect ~$0.18 credit with limited risk. Below $86 invalidation.

Credit: $0.14-$0.18

Max loss: $0.82

BE: $85.82

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or near expiry; exit if TLT breaks below $86.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-24 $86.00/$85.00 put wing and $88.50/$89.50 call wing

Sell $86/$85 put and $88.50/$89.50 call wings for ~$0.37 credit. Range-bound expectation.

Credit: $0.31-$0.37

Max loss: $0.63

BE: 85.63 / 88.87

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if TLT approaches either wing.

Risk Alerts

!VIX 17.6 but IV low, possible vol expansion

!Put skew suggests downside risk priced in

!Gamma flip at $80 could accelerate moves

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.