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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $80.46EOD only

Max Pain

$81.00

Next expiry Sep 25, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.74

0.9% from close

Price Gap

+0.54

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.61

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Sep 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Sep 23, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 25, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

-0.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Low IV vs VIX risks expansion; pin risk near $86 invalidates aggressive sizing

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV significantly below VIX (12.5% vs 18.9%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Upward sloping term structure (contango) across all tenors

📊GEX at +$2.1B supports pinning near current levels

📌Max pain $86; high pin risk avoid naked options

📈Contango favors rolling short premium for theta decay

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+2.1B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,059 (8.4% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI at $80 (109k); Call wall $95-$110; Max pain $86 across expiries

Verdict: High pin risk near $86; below $80 dealer acceleration risk. Avoid naked positions near these levels.

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $84.00/$82.00 put wing and $90.00/$92.00 call wing

Sell $84/$82 put wing and $90/$92 call wing for ~$0.10 credit, max loss $1.89.

Credit: $0.09-$0.11

Max loss: $1.89

BE: 83.89 / 90.11

Mgmt: Exit if IV expands >15% or spot breaks $92/$82. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $82.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $82.00.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $80 may trigger rapid moves

!Low IV vs VIX signals volatility expansion risk

!Iron condor strikes widened to avoid $86 pin risk zone

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.