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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.72EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.58

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-0.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV at 13.9% is below VIX 16.4, indicating low implied vol relative to realized.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term spike to 9.8% on 2-day then drop to 7.8% suggests event premium, term structure slightly backwardated then contango.

📉Low IV vs VIX offers premium selling opportunity

⚠️Term structure shows near-term volatility spike

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.4B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,898 (7.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI heavy at $80 (117k) acting as floor; call OI wall $95-$110; max pain nearest at $86, pinning expected.

Verdict: Pinning likely around $86, with strong support at $85.5-$85; risk of gamma flip if spot drops to $80.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$84.00 put spread

Sell 85/84 put spread for directional bullish bias with defined risk.

Credit: $0.20-$0.24

Max loss: $0.76

BE: $84.76

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $85.5; manage at 50% max gain.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$84.00 put wing and $87.00/$90.00 call wing

Sell 85/84 put wing and 87/90 call wing for non-directional theta decay.

Credit: $0.56-$0.69

Max loss: $2.31

BE: 84.31 / 87.69

Mgmt: Adjust wings if volatility spikes or pinning deviates.

Risk Alerts

!Spot below $85 could trigger gamma flip to $80

!Put call volume ratio 0.9 indicates balanced sentiment

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.