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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $80.93EOD only
Max Pain
$81.00
Next expiry Sep 16, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.72
0.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.07
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
64
High premium
P/C OI
0.68
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 14, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 14, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 16, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short put credit spreads targeting $85.5 support
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $85 support or above $87.28 resistance
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.8% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV at 13.9% is below VIX 16.4, indicating low implied vol relative to realized.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term spike to 9.8% on 2-day then drop to 7.8% suggests event premium, term structure slightly backwardated then contango.

📉Low IV vs VIX offers premium selling opportunity
⚠️Term structure shows near-term volatility spike

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.4B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,898 (7.2% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI heavy at $80 (117k) acting as floor; call OI wall $95-$110; max pain nearest at $86, pinning expected.

Verdict: Pinning likely around $86, with strong support at $85.5-$85; risk of gamma flip if spot drops to $80.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$84.00 put spread
Sell 85/84 put spread for directional bullish bias with defined risk.
Credit: $0.20-$0.24
Max loss: $0.76
BE: $84.76
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $85.5; manage at 50% max gain.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$84.00 put wing and $87.00/$90.00 call wing
Sell 85/84 put wing and 87/90 call wing for non-directional theta decay.
Credit: $0.56-$0.69
Max loss: $2.31
BE: 84.31 / 87.69
Mgmt: Adjust wings if volatility spikes or pinning deviates.

Risk Alerts

!Spot below $85 could trigger gamma flip to $80
!Put call volume ratio 0.9 indicates balanced sentiment
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.