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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $81.78EOD only

Max Pain

$82.00

Next expiry Sep 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.44

0.5% from close

Price Gap

+0.22

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.63

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Sep 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Sep 17, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 18, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV well below VIX across term structure

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term IV low but 0DTE skew extreme; backmonths ~10-11%

⚠️0DTE call/put IV >50% vs ATM 6.7%, reflecting pinning speculation.

📈Dealer GEX +$2.2B supports pinning at $86.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+2.2B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,619 (7.8% below spot)

OI concentrations: OI concentrated at $86 for near expirations; put floor $80; call wall $95-110.

Verdict: High pin risk at $86 due to max pain and positive dealer gamma.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $84.00/$82.00 put spread

Sells $84/$82 put spread to collect premium with defined risk below support.

Credit: $0.05-$0.06

Max loss: $1.94

BE: $83.94

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if TLT breaks below $85.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-10 $84.00/$82.00 put wing and $88.00/$90.50 call wing

Sells $84/$82 put wing and $88/$90.50 call wing to capture theta in a range.

Credit: $0.20-$0.24

Max loss: $2.26

BE: 83.76 / 88.24

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or adjust if breach of short strikes.

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-07-10 $84.00 cash-secured put

Sells $84 cash-secured put to collect premium and potentially acquire TLT at discount.

Credit: $0.09-$0.10

Max loss: $83.90

BE: $83.90

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or roll if tested.

Risk Alerts

!0DTE IV skew extreme; avoid short premium near expiry.

!Gamma flip at $80 if spot breaks down.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.