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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.89EOD only
Max Pain
$84.00
Next expiry Jul 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.47
0.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 20, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 5, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8.5 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Call Credit Spreads
Invalidation: Break above $85.50 resistance
Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV below VIX (14.6% vs 21.5%)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Upward sloping through 2 weeks, then flat

⚠️Low IV cheapens premiums; wait for IV expansion or sell deep OTM
✅Upward term structure supports theta decay in short-dated

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-469.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 95,223 (5.9% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 95k at $80, call wall $90-$110

Verdict: Pin risk near $85-$86, $80 put support

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $86.00/$87.00 call spread
Sell 86/87 call spread to capture time decay and resistance pin.
Credit: $0.23-$0.29
Max loss: $0.71
BE: $86.29
Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks above $85.50; roll up if tested early.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$83.50 put wing and $86.00/$87.00 call wing
Sell 84/83.5 put and 86/87 call wings for premium with defined risk.
Credit: $0.33-$0.40
Max loss: $0.60
BE: 83.60 / 86.40
Mgmt: Adjust or close if TLT approaches either wing; early exit on IV crush.
#3
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$83.50 put spread
Sell 84/83.5 put spread to collect premium with support below.
Credit: $0.09-$0.12
Max loss: $0.38
BE: $83.88
Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks below $85; roll down if risk increases.

Risk Alerts

!Broad market selloff SPY -2.58% QQQ -4.80%
!VIX at 21.5 elevated
!Dealer net short gamma -$469M
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.