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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $80.05EOD only

Max Pain

$78.50

Next expiry Oct 19, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.64

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-1.55

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.52

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Oct 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Oct 16, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 5, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV below VIX (14.6% vs 21.5%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Upward sloping through 2 weeks, then flat

⚠️Low IV cheapens premiums; wait for IV expansion or sell deep OTM

✅Upward term structure supports theta decay in short-dated

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-469.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 95,223 (5.9% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI 95k at $80, call wall $90-$110

Verdict: Pin risk near $85-$86, $80 put support

Premium Opportunities

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $86.00/$87.00 call spread

Sell 86/87 call spread to capture time decay and resistance pin.

Credit: $0.23-$0.29

Max loss: $0.71

BE: $86.29

Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks above $85.50; roll up if tested early.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$83.50 put wing and $86.00/$87.00 call wing

Sell 84/83.5 put and 86/87 call wings for premium with defined risk.

Credit: $0.33-$0.40

Max loss: $0.60

BE: 83.60 / 86.40

Mgmt: Adjust or close if TLT approaches either wing; early exit on IV crush.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$83.50 put spread

Sell 84/83.5 put spread to collect premium with support below.

Credit: $0.09-$0.12

Max loss: $0.38

BE: $83.88

Mgmt: Close if TLT breaks below $85; roll down if risk increases.

Risk Alerts

!Broad market selloff SPY -2.58% QQQ -4.80%

!VIX at 21.5 elevated

!Dealer net short gamma -$469M

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.