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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.22EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.54
0.6% from close
Price Gap
+0.78
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Wait for volatility expansion; avoid premium selling
Invalidation: Spot below $80 gamma flip
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 14.1% lower than VIX 16.7 – low relative premium
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Steep contango: front-end IV near 4%, back-month ~12%, favoring longer-dated sells

📉IV below VIX – premium selling less attractive
📈Contango structure – longer-dated premium higher
⚡Low vol regime – defined-risk strategies recommended

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+651.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 93,957 (5.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $84; put floor $80; call wall $90–$110

Verdict: Moderate pin risk – OI clustered at $84; gamma flip at $80 could accelerate selling if broken

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $83.50 put / buy 2026-08-21 $84.00 put
Sells put near support, buys back-month put for protection.
Debit: $0.90-$1.11
Max loss: $1.11
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $80 support.
#2
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $86.50 call / buy 2026-08-21 $87.00 call
Sells call against long-term call, limited upside exposure.
Debit: $0.46-$0.56
Max loss: $0.56
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor gamma flip at $80; roll if breached.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $80 – sharp move below could accelerate selling
!Call OI wall at $90–$110 may cap upside
!Put OI floor at $80 provides support
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.