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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.91EOD only
Max Pain
$85.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.67
0.8% from close
Price Gap
+1.09
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short put spreads
Invalidation: Break below $83.25 or above $85.62
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
Below VIX (15.7% vs 17.4%)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep contango 0DTE→2DTE; flat thereafter

📊Front-end IV very low (4.3%), back-end ~12.5%
📈Call IV elevated at front, bullish flow
⚠️Low front IV limits premium, tail risk elevated

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+51.9M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 92,941 (4.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $84 (today), $85 (Fri), $84 (next wk); put OI heavy at $80 (92.9K); call wall $90-$110

Verdict: Elevated pin near $84, dealer gamma positive supports stability; gamma flip at $80 key downside risk

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $84.00/$82.00 put spread
Sell $84/$82 put spread, collect $0.65-0.80 credit, max loss $1.20.
Credit: $0.65-$0.80
Max loss: $1.20
BE: $83.20
Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or break below $83.50.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $84.00/$82.00 put wing and $85.00/$87.00 call wing
Sell $84/$82 puts and $85/$87 calls, collect $1.04-1.28 credit, risk $0.72.
Credit: $1.04-$1.28
Max loss: $0.72
BE: 82.72 / 86.28
Mgmt: Manage at 25% of max credit; adjust wings on breakout.
#3
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-18 $82.00 put + sell $85.00 call
Sell $82 put and $85 call, collect $1.03-1.26 credit, unlimited loss.
Credit: $1.03-$1.26
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 80.74 / 86.26
Mgmt: Stop-loss at 2x credit; close at 50% profit.

Risk Alerts

!0DTE IV 4.3% increases tail risk
!Call OI wall $90-$110 may cap upside
!Gamma flip at $80 if support breaks
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.