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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $77.87EOD only
Max Pain
$77.00
Next expiry Oct 9, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.58
0.8% from close
Price Gap
-0.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
61
High premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 8, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 8, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 26, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Bull call spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $84
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: Low IV makes calls cheap, favorable for bull call spread

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV 13.6% vs VIX 17.0%, options cheap
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Steep contango, front-month IV depressed at 7.8%

📉IV below VIX, selling premium not ideal
📊Term structure steep contango, short-dated IV very low

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.0B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 94,039 (6.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $84; put OI 94k at $84 (6% below spot)

Verdict: Moderate pin risk; spot near max pain with heavy put OI

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $82.00/$80.50 put wing and $86.00/$88.00 call wing
Sells both sides expecting pin near $84.
Credit: $0.39-$0.48
Max loss: $1.52
BE: 81.52 / 86.48
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or before expiry.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $82.00/$80.50 put spread
Bullish put spread benefiting from pin or slight rise.
Credit: $0.08-$0.10
Max loss: $1.40
BE: $81.90
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $85.
#3
Call calendar
Sell 2026-06-18 $86.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $86.00 call
Neutral to bullish calendar expecting time decay or IV uptick.
Debit: $0.37-$0.46
Max loss: $0.46
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll if spot tests strike.

Risk Alerts

!Time decay risk on short-dated calls
!Pin risk if spot moves away from $84
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.