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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.22EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.54

0.6% from close

Price Gap

+0.78

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV (14.6%) below VIX (16.8%) – cheap options but low vol favors sellers.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-flat term structure, slight contango beyond 1w.

📉IV at 14.6% vs VIX 16.8% – relatively cheap, but low vol regime supports premium selling.

🟢Positive GEX +$358M suggests pinning support.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+358.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 92,604 (5.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentration at $80 (92,604). Max pain pins at $85/$84/$85. Call wall $90-$110.

Verdict: Pinning likely in $84-$85 range. Risk of gamma flip below $80.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-06-12 $84.00/$82.00 put spread

Sell 84 put, buy 82 put for a net credit, capturing premium with limited downside.

Credit: $0.56-$0.68

Max loss: $1.32

BE: $83.32

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or prior to expiration if TLT nears $82.65.

Cash-secured put

Sell 2026-06-12 $84.00 cash-secured put

Sell 84 put, collecting premium and ready to buy TLT at $84 if assigned.

Credit: $0.82-$1.00

Max loss: $83.00

BE: $83.00

Mgmt: Roll down or close if TLT drops below $82.65 to reduce risk.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip risk at $80 due to put OI concentration.

!Low vol may reduce premium income potential.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.