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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $87.21EOD only

Max Pain

$86.50

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.40

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.71

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.61

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX pinning (+$1.3B); +1 spot ~At MP; -1 mixed flow/P-C skew; +0.5 low VIX (18.36)

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

ATM term structure ~8.6%-11.2% vs VIX 18.36 — IV is depressed vs index vol

Favorable?

Term structure: Flat-to-rising term structure from 1d (7.4%) → 45d (10.6%) → multi-month ~11-11.8% — mild contango, no large term premium

⚠️Avg IV 13.6% and ATM short-dated IVs as low as 7.4%-10.6% — premiums are compressed

📌Large positive dealer GEX (+$1.3B) creates a pinning environment around $86-$87

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At (spot $87.21 vs max pain ~ $86 — within ~0.8% / pre-computed: Spot vs MP: At)

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$1.3B; strong positive GEX concentrated at $87.00 and $88.00)

Gamma flip: ~$86.00 — Gamma flip ~ $86 — below this level dealer gamma exposure decreases and moves can accelerate away from pin

OI concentrations: Put wall $86.00 (111,992 OI); Call walls $86.00 (90,797 OI), $87.00 (78,581 OI), larger call structure $92-$110

Verdict: Favorable — pinning supports short premium near $86-$88, reduces tail of small breaks; supports defined-risk credit positions sized conservatively

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell 2026-05-29 84/82 put spread (45 DTE)

30-45 DTE defined-risk put spread collects relatively richer term premium than weeklies (ATM 10.6% at 45d). Pinning at $86-$87 plus heavy $86 put OI reduces probability of a move below 84 within 45 days (expected move to May29 shows lower bound ~$84.62).

Credit: $0.40-$0.65

Max loss: $1.60

BE: 83.60

Mgmt: Take 60-75% of max profit; if price trades below $86 (gamma flip) close or roll down; cut losses if spread value reaches 60% of max loss or if daily close below $84.00

covered call

Buy 100 shares and sell 2026-04-22 87.50 call (8 DTE)

Short-dated covered call captures rapid theta; 87.50 call sits inside near-term GEX concentrations and max pain window — high pin likelihood minimizes assignment risk ahead of roll. IV is low, so premium is small but short time frame limits vega exposure.

Credit: $0.35-$0.45

Max loss: Stock risk (unlimited) minus collected premium

BE: $86.86

Mgmt: Take 50-66% of premium as profit; roll up-and-out if TLT rallies above 87.50 with <2d to expiry; close if TLT breaks and closes below $86.00 (gamma flip)

iron condor

Sell 2026-05-29 82/84P and 90/92C iron condor (45 DTE)

Defined-risk wings sized around the 45d expected move (~±3.0% → bounds ~$84.62-$89.79). Pinning and concentrated GEX at $87-$88 favor staying inside wings; broad wings capture additional theta with limited IV exposure.

Credit: $0.75-$1.10

Max loss: $1.25

BE: 80.25 / 91.75

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is tested (price inside 0.50 width), consider rolling the tested side down/up or closing; cut losses if combined position reaches 60% of max loss on either side

cash-secured put

Sell 2026-05-15 85 put (31 DTE) cash-secured

MP clustered around $86 and dealer GEX pinning increases chance puts expire worthless; 31 DTE still offers useful theta and a slightly higher ATM IV (~10.5%) than weeklies.

Credit: $0.55-$0.85

Max loss: 85 strike assignment cost minus credit (i.e., wide)

BE: $84.45

Mgmt: Take 50-75% profit; if price trades below $86, consider rolling down ~2 strikes and out 1-2 expirations; close if TLT closes below $84.00

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip ~$86 — a close persistently below $86 can flip dealer behavior and accelerate downside; treat $86 as hard invalidation for short-put bias

!IV is low (Avg IV 13.6%, ATM 7.4%-11.2%) — premiums compressed; avoid large naked short risk and favor defined-risk spreads

!Heavy call flow concentrated at $87.00 and $88.00 (Top premium flow: $87 call net $3,122,986; GEX +$294.2M at $87) — short-call positions may face pin/assignment competition and flow-driven pinning

!Net premium flow shows large institutional put buying at higher strikes (e.g., $115/$96/$94 put net flows negative) — mixed flow; watch for directional block trades that can reprice IV

!No explicit upcoming earnings or ex-dividend data provided — absence confirmed in input (do not sell naked through unknown events)

Read the Theta analysis for TLT for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.