TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $86.75EOD onlyThis page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
TLT is in a bullish regime with low volatility, positive gamma pinning near $86, and bullish flow. Dealers are long gamma ($+2.2B) and long delta (+219M shares), supporting price stability. Spot is above max pain, and VIX at 16 provides a favorable backdrop. Uptrend targets $87.41 (1w) and $87.66 (2w), with support at $86.09 and $85.84.
Conflicts: Resistance at $87.66; gamma flip at $80 (distant).
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+2.2B
DEX: +219.3M shares
Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,619 (7.8% below spot))
NTM gamma: NTM gamma: +$2.2B; DEX: +219.3M shares; gamma flip at ~$80.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: TLT IV is in line with VIX, reflecting low vol environment.
Term structure: Term structure is relatively flat, no major event kinks.
Skew: Skew is neutral; no clear vol arbitrage opportunity.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium positive $38.8M, P/C vol ratio 0.47, strong call volume.
Directional prints: 9 call 87.5 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 46.5, huge call volume vs OI; likely bought to open, bullish. 8.5 call 89 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 25.7, 10190 vol vs 397 OI; aggressive call buying, bullish. 16 call 84.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 12.0, ITM call buying with elevated IV; bullish positioning.
Unusual: 9 call 87.5 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 46.5, extreme ratio; likely new bullish opens, possibly covering short calls. 11.6 put 83 OTM 2027-05-21 — Vol/OI 27.9, unusual put activity; could be bearish buys or bullish sells; given flow, likely sold for premium. 8.5 call 89 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 25.7, high volume vs thin OI; aggressive call buying, directional bet.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iron condor | Moderate | Sell 2026-08-21 $85.00/$84.00 put wing and $89.00/$90.00 call wing Why now: Bullish flow and low VIX suggest limited downside; defined wings cap tail risk. | Upside breakout beyond $90 or downside below $85. |
| Bull call spread | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-07-10 $88.00/$88.50 call spread Why now: Low vol environment favors defined-risk call spreads capturing upside to 1w target | Limited upside if rally stalls below strike, but vega minimal |
| Put credit spread | Moderate | Sell 2026-07-10 $85.00/$84.50 put spread Why now: Bullish-neutral defined-risk sale, high probability of collecting full credit | If sell-off breaks support, max loss limited but can be large |
| Long call | Moderate | Buy 2026-07-10 $88.00 call Why now: Direct bullish exposure with limited downside, leveraged to gamma near pin | Time decay and flat price erode premium, vol spike hurts directionals |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.