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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.77EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.49

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.77

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish within range: TLT above $85 MP, gamma +$1.3B, low vol. Grind to $86 pin (6/17). Spot 1.2% above MP, VIX 19. Mixed flow caps but high confidence.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow +1 gamma pin +0.5 MP +0.5 VIX 19.

Supports: Pos GEX +$1.3B, low vol, spot >$85.58, VIX 19.
Conflicts: Flow mixed, resist $86-87.27, gamma flip $80 distant.

🟢Large gamma ($+1.3B) pins price; dealers hedge.

📊Spot 1.2% above MP, leans to $86 pin.

⚠️Flow mixed, limits breakout.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low IV near 30d low; VIX 19 floor.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pos gamma $+1.3B; dampens swings.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; balanced call/put.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $85.80, 1.2% above 6/12 MP; pin to $86 (6/17).

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple pin levels ($85,$86) multi-week mean reversion; low vol+gamma support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$85.58$86.38

Spot above $85.58; up to $86.38

Next 1 week

$85.18$86.79

Grind to $86 pin; range $85.18-$86.79

Next 2 weeks

$84.70$87.27

Resist $87.27; support $84.7 if break

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-06-12); $84 (2026-06-15); $86 (2026-06-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $85.58/$86.38; 1w $85.18/$86.79

Support: $85.00 · $84.70 · $80.00

Resistance: $86.00 · $87.27 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,967 (7.0% below spot)

Structural: Support $85/$84.7 (MP), resist $86/$87.27 (pin/EM). Gamma flip $80.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.3B

DEX: +196.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,967 (7.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma +$1.3B; flip $80 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV low vs VIX; cheap vol favor long vol.

Term structure: Flat to backwardated; near-term richer.

Skew: Put skew elevated from $80 flip; skew cheap for upside calls.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $30.3M, P/C volume ratio 1.24 (moderate put activity) but OI ratio 0.76 (more call open interest), overall bullish flow.

Directional prints: 32.6 call 80 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 5254 vs OI 386 (13.6x), IV 32.6%. Likely bought; bullish directional bet on TLT rally to $80+. 30.5 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 14750 vs OI 2053 (7.2x), IV 30.5%. Likely bought; large bullish positioning near the money.

Unusual: 14.7 put 90 ITM 2026-06-30 — Vol 3941 vs OI 616 (6.4x), IV 14.7%. OTM put buying; unusual hedge or bearish bet against bullish backdrop. 11.7 call 85 ITM 2027-05-21 — Vol 5245 vs OI 704 (7.5x), IV 11.7%. Long-dated call buying; unusual for its extended time frame and low IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Flow bearish break $85.58.

!Rates spike break $85 toward flip.

!VIX <17 compress IV, less hedging.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $86.00/$87.50 call spread Why now: Bullish bias with defined risk; low vol favors debit spreads; expiration after expected move.	If TLT stays below $85, debit lost; capped at $86.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-10 $84.00/$83.50 put spread Why now: Neutral-bullish, defined risk, premium capture; low vol supports credit sale.	If TLT drops below $84, max loss; tail risk from rate spikes.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $86.00 call Why now: Direct bullish bet with limited downside; low vol environment; gamma positive.	Time decay if no move; need price above $86+premium to profit.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $86.00/$87.50 call spread

Captures upside to $87.50 while limiting cost.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish bias and defined risk; low vol favors debit spreads; expiration after expected move.

Debit: $0.50-$0.62

Max loss: $0.62

BE: $86.62

Mgmt: Manage around $85 invalidation level; exit if support breaks.

Traders seeking defined risk bullish exposure.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $84.00/$83.50 put spread

Collects premium expecting TLT to stay above $84.

Why this play: Neutral-bullish premium capture with TLT support at $84; lower risk than long call.

Credit: $0.08-$0.10

Max loss: $0.40

BE: $83.90

Mgmt: Manage if TLT drops near $84; roll or close.

Conservative traders looking for income.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $86.00 call

Profits from TLT rising above $86 by mid-July.

Why this play: Direct bullish play with unlimited upside; higher risk but high confidence in grind higher.

Debit: $0.95-$1.16

Max loss: $1.16

BE: $87.16

Mgmt: Set stop around $85; consider early profit if target hit.

Aggressive traders with high conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTLT holds above $85.0 support → Enter bull call spread: Buy 2026-07-10 $86.00/$87.50 call spread for $0.50-$0.62.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJTLT reaches $87.27 resistance → Take partial profits on bull call spread; consider rolling up.

Exit Triggers

EXITTLT breaks below $85.0 invalidation → Close all bullish positions: bull call spread and put credit spread.

Tactical Summary

Bullish within range $85-$87.27. Low vol, high gamma. Enter bull call spread on hold above $85, take profit at $87.27, exit below $85. Put credit spread alternative for income if neutral.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.