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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.12EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.56

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-0.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TLT bullish regime with low vol, pinning gamma at $85, bullish flow. Spot near max pain implies tight pin into Jun12 expiry. Downside protected by gamma flip at $80, upside resistance at $85-86. Bias range-bound bullish with slight upside skew.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 pinning gamma +1 spot at MP = 9.0. Strong alignment supports high confidence.

Supports: Low vol reduces tail risk; GEX +$103.7M positive pinning; flow bullish; spot at max pain $85.
Conflicts: Elevated VIX (22.22) risks breaking pin; resistance clusters $85-86.

📌Spot at $85 max pain — pinning into Jun12 expiry.

🛡️Dealer gamma flip at $80 provides deep support.

⚡Low vol + bullish flow favor calls but capped by resistance.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV Low relative to typical, contrasting with VIX 22.22. TLT bonds show lower vol during equity selloffs.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$103.7M positive, pinning near $85. Gamma flip at $80 from put OI concentration.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flows (call buying/put selling) align with positive GEX and spot at MP.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $85 exactly at max pain for multiple expiries, implying tight pin action.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Pinning dynamics into Jun12 expiry dominate; post-expiry shift expected.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$84.33$85.42

Pin to $85; upside limited to $85.42 guardrail.

Next 1 week

$84.18$85.57

Range $84.18-$85.57; support at $80 gamma flip distant.

Next 2 weeks

$83.75$86.01

Wider range $83.75-$86.01; resistance at $86 call wall.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-06-10); $85 (2026-06-12); $85 (2026-06-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $84.33/$85.42; 1w $84.18/$85.57

Support: $83.75 · $80.00

Resistance: $85.00 · $86.00 · $86.01

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,955 (5.7% below spot)

Structural: Support $83.75 (2w low), $80 (gamma flip). Resistance $85 (max pain), $86 (call OI). EM: 2d $84.33/$85.42; 1w $84.18/$85.57.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+103.7M

DEX: +191.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,955 (5.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$103.7M near-term gamma positive; gamma flip ~$80 (put OI 117,955). DEX +191.1M shares reinforces pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV cheap vs VIX 22.22; bond vol typically underperforms equity vol in selloffs, favoring calendar spreads.

Term structure: Flat to slightly backwardated near Jun12 expiry; event kink at Jun12 may steepen post-expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated from tail risk; call skew flat. Opportunity: sell put spreads at $80 gamma flip for decay into pin.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$34.8M, P/C vol 0.58, strong call bias (bullish).

Directional prints: 11 call 87 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol 34605 vs OI 2514, vol/OI 13.8x. Likely large bullish call buying; potential long delta. 12.5 call 94 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol 24100, OI 1227, vol/OI 19.6x. Far OTM call buying, aggressive bullish bet or hedge. 24.4 call 81 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 14827, OI 2122, vol/OI 7.0x. Near-term call buying, directional bullish.

Unusual: 23.3 call 81.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 24.1x, extreme new buying. Aggressive call accumulation; likely bullish or short covering. 28.1 call 80 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 14.1x, large ITM call buying. Bullish positioning, possibly closing short puts. 23.8 call 82.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 10.7x, new buying. OTM call speculative, two days to expiry.

Risks & Catalysts

!Macro shock breaking pin; VIX>22 risk-off could spike vol.

!Resistance $85-86 repels upside; failure to hold $84.33 guardrail.

!Post-expiry gamma flip may accelerate if spot breaks below $84.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$82.50 put spread Why now: Low IV, bullish flow, gamma pin supports range up to $85.	Macro shock pushes TLT below short strike; pin failure.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $85.00/$86.00 call spread Why now: Bullish flow, low IV, pin upside at $85 resistance, cheap premium.	Resistance holds, premium decays; spot below $85 at expiry.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $84.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish bias, low vol, pin support at $84, good risk/reward.	Sharp decline below $84; assignment at loss.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$83.00 put wing and $86.00/$86.50 call wing Why now: Low IV, pin at $85, defined risk, suitable for sideways move.	Breakout beyond wings; macro vol spike.

Top Plays

Bullish Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$82.50 put spread

Sell $84/$82.50 put spread to collect premium, betting TLT stays above $84.

Why this play: Best risk/reward for bullish bias with low volatility and pin support at $84.

Credit: $0.19-$0.24

Max loss: $1.26

BE: $83.76

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $83.75; take profit at 50% max gain.

Traders expecting range-bound bullish move with low vol.

Cheap Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $85.00/$86.00 call spread

Buy $85/$86 call spread for cheap premium, targeting break above $85.

Why this play: Expresses upside bias with low cost, resistance at $85.

Debit: $0.38-$0.47

Max loss: $0.47

BE: $85.47

Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $83.75; let run to expiry.

Traders wanting limited risk bullish exposure.

Low Vol Iron Condor

Sell 2026-06-26 $84.00/$83.00 put wing and $86.00/$86.50 call wing

Sell $84/$83 put wing and $86/$86.50 call wing for defined risk.

Why this play: Captures premium from low volatility and pin action.

Credit: $0.26-$0.31

Max loss: $0.69

BE: 83.69 / 86.31

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at 2x credit received; adjust if vol spikes.

Traders expecting limited move around $85.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF TLT holds above $83.75 support → THEN sell $84/$82.50 put credit spread (tlt-put-credit-spread-1) at 0.19-0.24 credit

IFIF TLT breaks above $85 resistance → THEN buy $85/$86 bull call spread (tlt-bull-call-spread-1) at 0.38-0.47 debit

IFIF TLT stays within $83.75-$86 range → THEN sell $84/$83 put and $86/$86.50 call iron condor (tlt-iron-condor-1) at 0.26-0.31 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITIF TLT breaks below $83.75 → THEN close all bullish positions

EXITIF put credit spread profit reaches 50% max gain (~$0.12) → THEN close spread for profit

Tactical Summary

TLT bullish regime with low vol and pin at $85. Key support $83.75, resistance $85-86. Ranked plays: put credit spread if holding, bull call spread on break out, iron condor sideways. Exit if spot below $83.75.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.