Home Options TLTReports

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.12EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.56

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-0.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning at $85; dealers long gamma, flow bullish, low vol. Target resistance at $86, then $86.35. Key support $84.57. Override null.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 + GEX/flow aligned (+2), pinning (+1), spot at MP (+1), VIX level (+0.5) = 9.5 (rounded to 9).

Supports: Bullish flow, strong dealer gamma, spot at MP, low vol.
Conflicts: Potential resistance at $86, macro risk if rates spike.

📌Pinning at $85 max pain

📉Low vol regime

🐂Bullish flow persists

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV low relative to typical; VIX 19.87, TLT IV compressed.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$188.3M, pinning near $85. Gamma flip ~$80.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow, net premium positive, skewed calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $85 MP (within 0.1%), strong pinning.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Pinning and bullish flow around weekly expiries; event-driven near-term.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$84.57$85.68

Target upper guardrail 85.68.

Next 1 week

$84.27$85.98

Aim for 85.98 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$83.90$86.35

Resistance at 86.35.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-06-10); $85 (2026-06-12); $85 (2026-06-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $84.57/$85.68; 1w $84.27/$85.98

Support: $85.00 · $83.90 · $80.00

Resistance: $86.00 · $86.35 · $90.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 118,578 (6.0% below spot)

Structural: Support: 85, 83.9, 80; Resistance: 86, 86.35, 90; Max pain $85.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+188.3M

DEX: +186.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 118,578 (6.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$188.3M, DEX +186.9M shares, gamma flip ~$80.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV cheap vs VIX and sector; low vol regime.

Term structure: Flat to slight contango; no event kinks.

Skew: Call skew elevated; consider short call spreads at resistance.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $34.5M bullish with P/C volume ratio 0.74 and OI ratio 0.78, indicating strong call demand.

Directional prints: 32 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 66.7; large opening call buying (6800 vol vs 102 OI) suggests bullish directional bet, likely bought, preferred read bullish. 13 call 83 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 11.1 with 20030 volume; significant call accumulation in July expiry, likely bought, bullish longer-term outlook. 29.5 call 81 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 11.8; 3600 vol vs 304 OI, opening call buying, preferred read bullish.

Unusual: 32 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Extreme vol/OI 66.7x; 6800 vol on 102 OI indicates aggressive call buying, highly unusual. 30.2 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 18.3x; 5500 vol vs 300 OI, unusual concentration of bullish flow in back-to-back expirations. 12.9 call 87.5 OTM 2026-06-17 — Low IV (12.9%) far OTM call with vol/OI 10.3; potential sold call or speculative buy, unusual due to cheap premium and low IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Resistance at $86 may cap upside.

!Macro rate spike could reverse gains.

!Gamma flip at $80 if spot drops.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $86.00/$86.50 call spread Why now: Low vol and bullish flow support upside; spread caps risk.	If TLT fails to break $86, spread loses value.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $83.50/$82.00 put spread Why now: Strong put wall at $84; low vol favors premium collection.	Break below $84 exposes to loss if support fails.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $83.50 cash-secured put Why now: Low vol and bullish bias provide favorable premium for entry.	Assignment risk if TLT drops below $84; capital tied up.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $86.00 call Why now: High call demand and low vol make long calls attractive.	Theta decay if TLT stays below $86; full premium loss.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $86.00/$86.50 call spread

Buy $86/$86.50 call spread to profit from limited upside move with defined risk.

Why this play: Best risk/reward for bullish bias with low vol; caps risk while targeting upside.

Debit: $0.15-$0.18

Max loss: $0.18

BE: $86.18

Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $85 invalidation level.

Mildly bullish traders seeking defined risk.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-02 $86.00 call

Buy $86 call to leverage bullish move; higher risk but higher reward.

Why this play: High call demand and low vol favor long calls; unlimited upside potential.

Debit: $0.48-$0.58

Max loss: $0.58

BE: $86.58

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $85; consider taking profits near $86.35 resistance.

Aggressive traders with strong bullish conviction.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $83.50/$82.00 put spread

Sell $83.50/$82 put spread to collect premium with bullish view.

Why this play: Low vol and put wall at $84 support premium collection; bullish bias favors selling puts.

Credit: $0.17-$0.21

Max loss: $1.29

BE: $83.29

Mgmt: Close if TLT drops below $85 early.

Income-focused traders expecting sideways to bullish.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf TLT holds above $85 support → Buy 2026-07-02 $86/$86.50 call spread (tlt_1)

IFIf TLT breaks above $86 resistance → Buy 2026-07-02 $86 call (tlt_4)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf TLT drops to $85 → Sell 2026-07-02 $83.50/$82 put spread (tlt_2) at better price or close

Exit Triggers

EXITIf TLT closes below $85 → Close all bullish positions (tlt_1, tlt_2, tlt_3, tlt_4)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, pinning at $85. Support $85, resistance $86/$86.35. Top play: Bull Call Spread (tlt_1). Entry if $85 holds; if $86 breaks, Long Call (tlt_4). Exit all if $85 invalidates.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.