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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.06EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 8, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.46

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.75

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 5, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral to slightly bullish as spot near $85 max pain and VIX low support, but negative GEX and mixed flow cap conviction. Range-bound between $83.3 and $85.95.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5, -1 for GEX/flow contradict, +1 for spot near MP, +0.5 for supportive VIX.

Supports: Spot near $85 support, DEX +184.1M shares (long delta), VIX low.
Conflicts: Negative GEX -$51.4M, mixed flow no clear bias.

⚖️Spot at max pain $85, high pin probability.

⚠️Short gamma -$51.4M can amplify moves.

✅VIX low at 18.9 supports range trade.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low vol with VIX ~18.9, IV likely cheap relative to history.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX -$51.4M indicates short gamma, can accelerate breakouts.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, no dominant directional premium.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $85 max pain, pinning likely for near-dated options.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol, pinning, and short gamma suggest a slow grind within established range; no imminent catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$84.02$85.23

Pinned near $85 max pain, intraday range tight.

Next 1 week

$83.66$85.59

Hold support at $83.66, bounce to $85.95 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$83.30$85.95

Test $85.95 resistance, range bias up if support holds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $85 (2026-06-08); $85 (2026-06-10); $86 (2026-06-12)

EM guardrails: 2d $84.02/$85.23; 1w $83.66/$85.59

Support: $83.30 · $80.00

Resistance: $85.00 · $85.95 · $86.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 95,230 (5.5% below spot)

Structural: Resistance: $85, $85.95, $86 | Support: $83.3, $80 | Gamma flip: ~$80 | EM guardrails: 2d $84.02/$85.23, 1w $83.66/$85.59.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-51.4M

DEX: +184.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 95,230 (5.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$51.4M (short gamma), DEX +184.1M shares (long delta), gamma flip near $80.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV cheap relative to VIX, consistent with low vol regime.

Term structure: Flat term structure, no obvious event kinks.

Skew: Skew neutral; consider long vol to capitalize on short dealer gamma.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive net premium of $16.9M with call volume outpacing puts (P/C 0.89) indicates bullish flow bias.

Directional prints: 24.6 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 36.7x, likely bought; aggressive bullish positioning. 26.9 call 80 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 32x, bought; adds to bullish demand. 15.8 call 88 OTM 2026-06-15 — OTM call with high vol, speculative bullish.

Unusual: 24.6 call 80.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — Extremely high vol/OI 36.7x, likely institutional buying; strong bullish signal. 26.9 call 80 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 32x, unusual activity; bought, reinforcing bullish bias. 12 put 84 OTM 2027-03-19 — Long-dated put with high vol/OI 18.7x, likely hedging against downside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative gamma can cause sharp intraday moves.

!Fed policy surprise beyond expectations.

!Breakout above $85.95 resistance or below $83.3 support trends.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $85.00/$87.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spread captures upside to resistance with limited cost; positive net premium flow supports bullish bias.	If TLT falls below $83.30, full loss of debit paid; cap gains above $85.95.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-26 $83.50/$82.50 put spread Why now: Put credit spread earns return in range-bound environment with defined risk; positive call flow supports.	If TLT breaks below strike, max loss is width of spread; tail risk from negative gamma.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $85.00/$87.00 call spread

Bullish directional play aiming for $87 target within capital at risk.

Why this play: Captures upside to resistance with limited risk; supported by bullish flow and max pain near $85.

Debit: $0.49-$0.60

Max loss: $0.60

BE: $85.60

Mgmt: Exit near target or if TLT breaks below $83.3.

Traders expecting gradual upside toward resistance.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $83.50/$82.50 put spread

Sell downside put spread to profit from time decay and minor bullish bias.

Why this play: Neutral-to-bullish theta-positive play in range-bound market; collects premium with defined risk.

Credit: $0.14-$0.17

Max loss: $0.83

BE: $83.33

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if TLT drops below invalidation.

Traders expecting range-bound consolidation above $83.3.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTLT holds above $83.3 and closes above $85 → Buy 2026-06-26 $85/$87 call spread for 0.49-0.60

IFTLT stays above $83.3 and within $83.3-$85 range → Sell 2026-06-26 $83.50/$82.50 put spread for 0.14-0.17

Exit Triggers

EXITTLT reaches $87 or breaks below $83.3 → Close bull call spread

EXITTLT drops below $83.3 or spread reaches 50% max profit → Close put credit spread

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-bullish bias; range-bound between $83.3 and $85.95. Prefer bull call spread on strength above $85 or put credit spread for theta decay. Invalidation at $83.3. Low volatility limits sharp moves.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.