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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $84.68EOD only

Max Pain

$83.50

Next expiry May 27, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.75

0.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.18

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

TLT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with upside to $86, but gamma pinning near $84 may constrain near term. Strong flow and dealer gamma support, low vol favorable.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 gamma positive pinning; +0.5 spot above MP; +1 VIX 17 (low).

Supports: Bullish flow, $+1.0B GEX, low vol, spot above $84 max pain.
Conflicts: Resistance $86, gamma pinning $84, spot close to MP.

💰Bullish flow with $+1.0B GEX

📌Gamma pinning near $84 max pain

📈Low vol environment supports trend

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low IV vs typical range; bonds muted, aligns with directional play.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$1.0B positive, strong pinning near $84 max pain.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium bullish; P/C ratio favors calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP $84 by ~1.3%, within pinning range.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bullish flow, strong dealer gamma, and low vol support sustained tilt beyond weekly expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$84.71$85.49

Max pain pins $84; upside to guardrail.

Next 1 week

$84.14$86.05

Flow and gamma support; resistance $86.

Next 2 weeks

$83.54$86.65

If hold $84, upside continuation.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $84 (2026-05-27); $84 (2026-05-29); $84 (2026-06-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $84.71/$85.49; 1w $84.14/$86.05

Support: $85.00 · $84.00 · $83.54

Resistance: $86.00 · $86.65 · $87.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 94,039 (6.0% below spot)

Structural: Support $85, $84 (max pain), $83.54; Resistance $86, $86.65, $87; 2d guardrails $84.71/$85.49.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.0B

DEX: +186.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 94,039 (6.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.0B, DEX +186.6M shares; gamma flip ~$80 (put OI). Positive gamma pinning near $84.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV low vs VIX 17; bonds show muted vol, favorable for directional.

Term structure: Flat to slight backwardation given low vol and near-term events.

Skew: Puts likely elevated; no clear structure play without more data.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $12.8M bullish, P/C vol ratio 0.64 favoring calls.

Directional prints: 26.7 call 82 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 30.1x, extreme vs OI 375, likely bought; preferred read: bullish call buying. 22.1 call 82.5 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 12.3x, high vs OI 751, likely bought; preferred read: bullish call buying. 14.1 call 88.5 OTM 2026-06-03 — Vol/OI 13.1x, high vs OI 316, likely bought; preferred read: bullish call buying.

Unusual: 11.8 put 84.5 OTM 2026-06-03 — Vol/OI 28.3x, extreme vs OI 148, likely bought; preferred read: bearish put buying. 12.2 put 85 OTM 2026-06-03 — Vol/OI 15.9x, high vs OI 270, likely bought; preferred read: bearish put buying. 9.9 call 87.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.1x, moderate vs OI 700, likely bought; preferred read: bullish call buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $84 max pain

!Gamma flip at $80

!Vol spike from rate surprise

!Resistance rejection at $86-87

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-26 $83.50/$82.50 put spread Why now: Low vol environment, bullish flow, neutral positioning at $84 pin. Spread reduces tail risk.	Upside rally beyond short strike caps profit; gamma risk if pin breaks down.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-26 $85.00/$86.50 call spread Why now: Positive flow, low IV, $86 target aligns with GEX support. Cost efficient.	Underperformance if pin at $84 holds; spread expires worthless if stock declines.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $86.50 call / sell 2026-06-26 $82.50 put Why now: Bullish bias with low vol; risk reversal is cheap if stock stays above short put strike.	Put leg adds downside risk if stock falls sharply; both legs widen loss.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-26 $83.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish bias; premium harvest with potential assignment at discount to current price.	If stock drops below strike, obligated to buy at higher than market price.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-26 $86.50 call Why now: Low IV, positive flow, bullish bias; cheap OTM calls offer high convexity.	Theta decay if stock moves sideways; time premium loss if thesis takes longer.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread $85/$86.50

Buy 2026-06-26 $85.00/$86.50 call spread

Buy $85 call, sell $86.50 call for a net debit ~$0.56-0.69. Max gain $0.81, max loss limited.

Why this play: Directly targets $86 upside with limited cost, aligns with bullish flow and low IV.

Debit: $0.56-$0.69

Max loss: $0.69

BE: $85.69

Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $85 invalidating bullish thesis; take profit at $86 or near expiry.

Traders seeking defined risk bullish exposure near target.

Long Call $86.50

Buy 2026-06-26 $86.50 call

Buy $86.50 call for ~$0.38-0.47. Unlimited upside, max loss limited to premium.

Why this play: Cheap premium with high convexity; low vol favors upside acceleration.

Debit: $0.38-$0.47

Max loss: $0.47

BE: $86.97

Mgmt: Roll up or take profit on 100%+ gain; cut loss if TLT stays below $84.

Aggressive bullish traders expecting a sharp move above $86.

Put Credit Spread $83.50/$82.50

Sell 2026-06-26 $83.50/$82.50 put spread

Sell $83.50 put, buy $82.50 put for credit ~$0.18-0.21. Max gain $0.21, max loss $0.79.

Why this play: Earns premium with bullish lean, reduces tail risk via spread, fits low vol.

Credit: $0.18-$0.21

Max loss: $0.79

BE: $83.29

Mgmt: Let expire worthless if above $83.50; roll down if TLT approaches $84.

Conservative bullish traders wanting income with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf TLT holds above $84 and breaks above $85 on volume → Buy Bull Call Spread $85/$86.50 (tlt_bull_call_1) for net debit 0.56-0.69

IFIf TLT breaks above $86 with momentum → Buy Long Call $86.50 (tlt_long_call_1) for ~0.38-0.47

IFIf TLT holds above $84 and below $85 → Sell Put Credit Spread $83.50/$82.50 (tlt_put_credit_1) for credit 0.18-0.21

Exit Triggers

EXITIf TLT closes below $84 → Close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias to $86, gamma pinning near $84. Enter Bull Call Spread on hold above $84 and break of $85. Add Long Call on break above $86. Sell Put Credit Spread for income if range-bound. Exit if close below $84. Low vol favors upside.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.