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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.02EOD only
Max Pain
$84.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.55
0.7% from close
Price Gap
+0.98
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TLT Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TLT bullish bias as spot below max pain $84; low vol, short gamma dealers amplify squeeze potential. High confidence from GEX/flow alignment and VIX 18. Near-term target $84.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +0.5 spot 1.2% below MP; +0.5 VIX 18 low vol tailwind.
Supports: GEX/flow alignment; low vol; VIX 18; spot below MP; support at $81.19.
Conflicts: Flow mixed; gamma flip at $80; market weakness (SPY/QQQ down).
🎯Max pain $84 pins for 20/22 May expiry.
📉Gamma flip at $80; put OI concentration 82,866.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Low
Low vol with VIX 18; IV cheap, complacency suggests potential for sudden moves.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with net -$587.6M GEX; dealers short gamma, amplifying direction.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow with net dealer short gamma; overall premium supports bullish lean.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 1.2% below max pain $84; pinning likely towards expiration.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pinning to $84 on 20/22 May; low vol and short gamma favor rapid move to these levels.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$82.47$83.57
Aim for resistance $83.57; support at $82.47.
Next 1 week
$81.82$84.21
Target $84 max pain; support $81.82.
Next 2 weeks
$81.19$84.85
Range $81.19-$84.85; bias up but gamma flip at $80 caps downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $84 (2026-05-20); $85 (2026-05-22); $84 (2026-05-27)
EM guardrails: 2d $82.47/$83.57; 1w $81.82/$84.21
Support: $81.19 · $81.00 · $80.00
Resistance: $84.00 · $84.85 · $86.00
Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,866 (3.6% below spot)
Structural: Support: 81.19, 81.0, 80.0 (gamma flip). Resistance: 84.0 (max pain), 84.85, 86.0.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-587.6M

DEX: +188.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,866 (3.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net short gamma -$587.6M; dex +188.6M shares; gamma flip ~$80 (put OI). Negative gamma amplifies moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TLT IV cheap vs VIX 18; low vol regime supports gradual grind or squeeze.

Term structure: Term structure likely flat/contango due to low vol; not provided.

Skew: Put skew elevated near support; opportunity to sell puts at $81 strike for premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -16M; put/call vol 1.11 but OI 0.77; net buying; mixed but bearish lean.

Directional prints: 44.9 call 79 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 6066 vs OI 157 (38.6x); likely bought; bullish on TLT rally. 11.8 call 83 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 7528 vs OI 241 (31.2x); OTM call buying; bullish speculation.

Unusual: 17.6 put 70 OTM 2026-11-20 — Long-dated put with vol 10194 vs OI 870; possible hedging, bearish. 19.9 put 79 OTM 2026-05-27 — High vol 5170 vs OI 140 (36.9x) in cheap OTM put; hedging/speculation, bearish. 12.4 call 83 ITM 2027-01-15 — Unusual volume 5075 in Jan 2027 OTM call; long-term bullish bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip $80 could accelerate sell-off.
!Market weakness from SPY/QQQ may weigh.
!Flow mixed complicates conviction.
!Max pain $84 fails if spot breaks resistance.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-06-05 $84.50/$85.50 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread targeting $84 resistance.
Time decay; downside risk if break below $80.
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-05 $84.50 call
Why now: Short gamma and low vol favor long call exposure.
Theta decay; must move quickly.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-05 $84.50/$85.50 call spread
Buy $84.50/$85.50 call spread expiring June 5, 2026. Debit ~$0.16. Max gain $0.82, max loss $0.18.
Why this play: Defined-risk play targeting $84 resistance with short gamma boost.
Debit: $0.14-$0.18
Max loss: $0.18
BE: $84.68
Mgmt: Exit if TLT breaks below $81.19 invalidation level.
Traders seeking capped gain with lower risk.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-06-05 $84.50 call
Buy $84.50 call expiring June 5, 2026. Debit ~$0.30. Unlimited upside.
Why this play: Low IV and short gamma favor upside exposure.
Debit: $0.27-$0.34
Max loss: $0.34
BE: $84.84
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $81.19; consider taking profit at $84 resistance.
Aggressive traders targeting breakout above $84.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF TLT holds above $81.19 support → THEN buy 2026-06-05 $84.50/$85.50 call spread at $0.14-$0.18 debit
IFIF TLT pulls back to $81.19 and holds above for 15 minutes → THEN buy 2026-06-05 $84.50 call at $0.27-$0.34 debit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF TLT closes below $81.19 → THEN exit all long positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, short gamma squeeze potential, target $84. Key support $81.19 (invalidation). Preferred: bull call spread for defined risk; aggressive: long call. Monitor levels.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.