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SOFI

SoFi Technologies, Inc.Close $17.30EOD only
Max Pain
$17.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.52
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+0.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
0.50
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOFI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
SOFI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SOFI earnings 80% beat rate; bullish flow and GEX pinning support positive bias into Jul 28 event.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Gamma pinning to $18.5-$19 calls; call wall at $19-$25 vs put floor $10-$15 creates upside potential.
👍80% beat rate & bullish flow support positive expectancy.
⚠️IV elevated: crush risk if neutral report.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 71,034 (16.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (32 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$1.02 (5.7%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$1.55 (8.7%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$2.04 (11.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango with elevated near-term IV; 6d implied 5.7% move approx 1.5x realized vol skew.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush expected >50% from current levels.

Skew: Put skew elevated below $17.5; call skew flat above $19.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A; 80% beat rate suggests upside consistency.

Directional bias: Bullish beat rate but moves can be neutral.

Key Levels

1$15.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $16.85/$18.90
3Max pain pins: $18 (2026-06-26); $18 (2026-07-02); $17 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Deep OTM $11 put traded 5106 vs 344 OI (15x), potential hedge or bearish bet.

Likely tail-risk hedge; not directional.

$18 call active with 17,600 vol, aligning with max pain.

Flow supports pinning near $18.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $17.00/$16.00 put wing and $19.00/$20.00 call wing
Credit: $0.51-$0.63
Max loss: $0.37
Max gain: $0.63
BE: 16.37 / 19.63
Trigger: Manage near max gain or adjust at 50% profit.
Elevated IV and pinning support; captures time decay and crush.
Outperforms: Sell 17/16 put wing and 19/20 call wing; defined risk, neutral bias.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-24 $20.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $19.00 call
Debit: $0.85-$1.03
Max loss: $1.03
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close on gap risk; roll if invalidated below 17.5.
Contango and high beat rate; sells near-term premium, buys longer upside.
Outperforms: Sell 20c Jul 24, buy 19c Aug 21; bullish with time spread.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Guidance miss
!Growth slowdown
!Rate headwinds
!Competing fintechs

What to Watch

?Earnings Jul 28
?Gamma flip level $15
?Call OI wall $19
?Put support $16.32
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.