ThetaOwl

SOFI Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Spot reclaims $16.00 and holds, with continued net positive premium flow into calls.
Invalidation: Spot breaks and closes below the $15.00 put wall with net premium flipping negative.
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 net premium remains positive and GEX flips to positive (+$24M); +1 P/C volume ratio extremely call-dominant (0.54); +0.5 spot below MP creating pin-up pressure; -0.5 VIX regime high (IV 72%)

Watch next session: Spot reaction at $16.00 (gamma flip estimate); Flow into the $17.50C (12K+ volume today) for follow-through; Any defensive put buying at $15.00

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$448K bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.54 — extremely call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.57 — moderate call lean

Bullish flow regime solidifies. Net premium remains positive, volume is heavily call-skewed, and critically, GEX has flipped from negative to a significant positive $24M. This shifts dealer hedging from amplifying moves to suppressing volatility, supporting a grind higher toward max pain.

Notable Prints

#1
SOFI 4/17 $17.50 Call
Vol: 12,265
OI: 5,043
Vol/OI: 2.4x
IV: 54.3%
Notional: ~$1.1M (12,265 * ~$0.09 avg price from premium flow)
Intent: Fresh directional call buying
Dual read: Bought to open (bullish breakout bet) or sold to close (bearish)

Read-through: This is the highest-volume single print. The strike is above all near-term max pain levels ($16-$17) and the current spot. Buying here is a direct bet on a rally through resistance within two weeks. The moderate IV suggests this is not panic buying but targeted speculation.

#2
SOFI 5/1 $17.00 Call
Vol: 5,856
OI: 2,873
Vol/OI: 2.0x
IV: 65.2%
Notional: ~$760K (5,856 * ~$0.13 avg price from premium flow)
Intent: Directional call buying / roll from nearer dates
Dual read: Bought to open (bullish) or sold to close (bearish)

Read-through: Significant volume extending the bullish bet another two weeks out. This could be a roll from the 4/10 or 4/17 $17C, or fresh capital targeting a post-earnings (4/28-29) move. The strike aligns with the persistent max pain level, reinforcing the magnetic pull to $17.

#3
SOFI 4/10 $14.50 Put
Vol: 4,817
OI: 2,472
Vol/OI: 1.9x
IV: 63.3%
Notional: ~$385K (4,817 * ~$0.08 avg price from premium flow)
Intent: Short-dated put selling (premium collection) or protective put closing
Dual read: Sold to open (neutral/bullish) or bought to close (removing hedge)

Read-through: With spot at $15.85, this is a $1.35 OTM put expiring in 8 days. The high volume relative to OI and the net positive premium flow at the $15 strike suggest this is more likely put selling (bullish/neutral) than new protective buying. It's a bet that $14.50 will hold.

#4
SOFI 10/16 $13.00 Put
Vol: 1,005
OI: 252
Vol/OI: 4.0x
IV: 69.2%
Notional: ~$503K (1,005 * ~$0.50 estimated price)
Intent: Long-dated protective put purchase or put spread leg
Dual read: Bought to open (hedging) or sold to close (removing hedge)

Read-through: A meaningful, longer-dated put position ~18% below spot. The high vol/oi ratio indicates new positioning. This could be a standalone hedge for a long stock position, or part of a collar or diagonal spread paired with near-term calls. It provides downside protection for 6+ months.

#5
SOFI 11/20 $14.00 Put
Vol: 1,445
OI: 384
Vol/OI: 3.8x
IV: 64.8%
Notional: ~$578K (1,445 * ~$0.40 estimated price)
Intent: Long-dated protective put purchase
Dual read: Bought to open (hedging) or sold to close (removing hedge)

Read-through: Similar to the 10/16 $13P, this is a new, longer-dated put position ~12% OTM. The clustering of flow in these Nov/Oct ~$13-$14 puts suggests institutions are layering in inexpensive, longer-term tail risk protection while engaging in near-term bullish call activity.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Aggressive near-term calls at $17.50 (4/17) and $17.00 (5/1). Premium flow remains heavily net positive at $12, $16, $17, $20 calls.

Put additions: Minimal new near-term put buying. New longer-dated put hedges at $13 (10/16) and $14 (11/20). The massive $15.00 put wall (71,266 OI) remains the key support.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Major shift. GEX is now significantly positive (+$24M) and aligns with the bullish flow. Dealers are long gamma and will hedge by selling on rallies and buying on dips, promoting mean reversion and pinning toward high-OI strikes.

OI clusters: Call Walls: $19 (88.8K), $22 (88.1K), $30 (65.9K). Put Walls: $15 (71.3K), $16 (57.6K). Spot is trapped between the $15/$16 put walls and the $17 max pain, with positive GEX pulling it upward.

Hedging evidence: Clear evidence of layered hedging: aggressive near-term bullish call bets are being paired with longer-dated OTM put purchases (Oct/Nov $13-$14). This creates a bullish-to-neutral calendar spread posture—bullish in the near term with longer-term protection.

Max pain context: Spot ($15.85) is below the dominant max pain zone of $16-$17. Positive GEX and bullish flow create a strong magnetic pull toward $17 over the next 1-3 weeks.

Signal vs Noise

~The $10.00 Put 4/10 with 125% IV is extreme OTM noise, likely a spread leg or tiny OI skewing metrics.
~The $13.00 Call 4/10 with 145.7% IV is similarly noise—likely a leg of a complex multi-strike structure given the extreme IV and OTM strike.
~High volume in the $1.00 Call (OI 56,934, Vol 1) is a legacy position and not indicative of new flow.

Key Conclusions

Regime Confirmed: Bullish flow from prior report has solidified. The critical change is GEX flipping to +$24M (pinning/mean-reverting), now aligning with call dominance.
🎯Target $17.00: Flow is targeting a move to and through max pain. The $17.50C (4/17) is the largest fresh bullish bet, with the $17.00 strike a key magnet.
🛡️Hedged Bullishness: Institutions are buying near-term calls but simultaneously adding longer-dated OTM puts (Oct/Nov $13-$14). This is a calibrated, not reckless, bullish stance.
🧲Positive Gamma Pin: With spot below max pain and positive GEX, the path of least resistance is a controlled grind higher toward $16-$17, with volatility suppressed.

Read the Flow analysis for SOFI. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.